With football clubs struggling to come to terms with the financial implications of the ongoing COVID-19 crisis, the 2020/2021-season’s January transfer window went down as one of the most uneventful on record.
Take the Premier League, for instance, where many of the world’s wealthiest clubs play their football. Here, despite the vast riches on display, even these super-wealthy clubs aren’t immune to the economic issues brought about by the pandemic, as England’s top flight recorded its lowest ever number of deals in a transfer window.
Indeed, throughout the entire Premier League – undoubtedly the richest in global football – there were just 26 signings in January, which amounted to a little more than half the number of transfers in the same period last season.
Considering the financial hit football clubs have taken as a result of lost ticket sales, the fact they’re choosing to stick with what they’ve got rather than splashing the cash on new players shouldn’t come as much of a surprise.
But as well as the economic issues the pandemic is causing for many of our football clubs, was there another reason that explains why even the Premier League’s big boys failed to get new recruits through the door in January?
Brexit Britain and its impact on transfers
Throughout the Brexit debate, much of the conversation was about the economic impact leaving the European Union would have.
Questions about the fishing industry, food regulations and the price of medicine from abroad were all hot topics, but one thing hardly anyone stopped to consider – at least not publicly – was how an exit from the trading bloc would affect the trade of football players to and from Europe.
This appears to have been a major oversight, as new rules and regulations brought in on January 1st have changed the way clubs conduct their transfer business, and these adjustments are already causing recruitment issues for some managers.
Take one Sam Allardyce, for instance. Perhaps no manager embodies the failure to grasp exactly what leaving the EU would mean for the trade of Premier League footballers quite like the former West Brom boss.
Back in 2018, while in charge at Everton, Allardyce was asked how he’d voted in the EU referendum. Pulling no punches, Allardyce was critical of the EU and said he believed it was time the UK withdrew.
“I am out,” Allardyce told the Sun. “My feeling is that the European Union isn’t doing the United Kingdom any favours.”
However, after getting his wish and seeing the UK complete its formal withdrawal, Allardyce was surprised to find the new rules and regulations in place have made purchasing players from Europe much more difficult.
And to Allardyce’s dismay, the new red tape put in place torpedoed his January transfer plans, making his already-difficult job of rescuing the Baggies from relegation even more of an uphill task.
“I have found three players already who were capable of coming here and were not allowed,” he told reporters after watching his side post another defeat.
“It’s a shame. Due to new regulations in terms of the permit they were unable to come to this country, whereas previously they would have done. I have to look at that and think ‘can he qualify?’”
Impact on the Premier League’s product
The new rules, which were agreed by the FA, Premier League and UK government, were designed to help young, homegrown talent prosper, but one of the side-effects of the changes is they’ll create a real hurdle for some transfers moving forward.
In the past, Premier League clubs could complete transfers with relative ease, but now every player arriving from Europe must be in possession of a work permit, which can only be obtained once the player has met a number of requirements.
This will undoubtedly result in the collapse of some transfers that in the past would have gone through without any hiccups.
Additionally, while every transfer will now require more paperwork, some deals are off the table all together. Take the signing of international U-18s, for instance, which are now banned completely under the new rules that state any player signing to or from a European club must be over the age of 18.
Just think of the deals that wouldn’t have happened over the years if these directives had been in place longer: Cesc Fabregas to Arsenal, Jadon Sancho to Borussia Dortmund, Paul Pogba to Manchester United – all historic transfers that would no longer be permitted, which would undoubtedly have an impact on the Premier League’s product.
It’ll be interesting to see how this will affect the viewing figures of the Premier League. With an annual audience of 4.7 billion viewers watching from 643 million homes around the world, the English top flight is by far the most popular football competition on the planet.
However, this popularity has been, at least in part, built by the young and promising overseas talent English teams raided their European neighbours for over the years.
With those deals now prohibited and many transfers being scuppered by post-Brexit restrictions, it remains to be seen whether this will have an effect on the Premier League’s dominance moving forward.
Will clubs start to look elsewhere?
With Europe becoming an increasingly difficult market to sign players from, pundits and football experts have predicted Premier League sides may start to look further afield, with South America and Africa muted as likely destinations.
For fans of the Premier League who enjoy watching these skillful, technically gifted players with magic in their boots, these could be exciting times.
Although British clubs will still need to wait until South American and African players turn 18 – this rule was always in place, and the exemption only existed when signing from other European countries – once they reach their eighteenth birthday they’ll be immediately eligible for transfer.
Moreover, judging by the new system used for granting the work permits, signing these players may be much more straightforward than it was in the past.
Points are awarded for international appearances, and due to the fact competition in some of these countries – particularly African nations – isn’t as high as it is in some parts of Europe, not only do talented young players have a better chance of making it into their respective national sides, but they may already have international caps under their belt. This would make obtaining a work permit for a proposed transfer much easier.
Additionally, the Brazilian and Argentinian leagues are viewed highly by the permit system, and the Copa Libertadores has been given equal weighting to the Champions League.
This means straight away there are 32 sides whose players automatically meet the GBE threshold, while the Copa Scudamericana – the second-tier South American club competition that’s equivalent to the Europa League – also racks up the same number of points, providing another 32 sides to monitor for potential signings.
Add to that the fact youth players are now viewed much more favourably and suddenly we have hundreds of previously ineligible players who are now gettable, making South America a very viable and increasingly attractive option for British clubs.
With Premier League sides expected to turn their focus to these continents, this could well send shockwaves around Europe as many French sides rely on African imports, while the Spanish and Portuguese leagues always have a steady stream of South American talent coming in.
If suddenly there’s increased competition from Britain, will many of the clubs around Europe be able to compete? At a time when the majority of them are seriously struggling in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, given the financial muscle of the Premier League’s biggest sides, the answer might well be no.
Scouting improvements necessary
Despite an increase in competition from British clubs, one advantage teams from elsewhere in Europe have at the moment is in the area of scouting.
Many Premier League clubs simply don’t have the scouting networks in place to upset the order just yet, but with some heavy investment over the next couple of years or so, they could soon start to pick up some of the best talent from under the noses of their continental rivals.
With a significantly wider market, once clubs start to improve their scouting networks then it won’t be hard to find talented players. Whereas in the past it was only permitted to purchase full internationals or those valued above £15 million, many of these players were out the question for most clubs.
However, with the criteria changing, the market is now open to more clubs. Thus, Latin America might be about to receive an influx of scouts from the UK.
In the past, very few players have joined British sides directly from South America. Even fewer have come straight from Africa.
This strategy was viewed as risky, as traditionally players from these countries tended to struggle to adapt to such a different way of life, while the physical intensity of European football can also prove a stumbling block for some.
Instead, British sides preferred to sign players who had already proven themselves elsewhere in Europe, so the vast majority of South Americans in the Premier League came via another league.
There have been exceptions to the rule, though, with the likes of Gabriel Jesus and Richarlison among those plucked directly from their homeland. These two players have proven particularly successful, and the hope will be that more players can adapt to life in the UK as well as those two have.
What’s the conclusion?
With Britain’s exit from the EU only a few months old, it’s still difficult to predict exactly how the divorce will affect the transfer dealings of Premier League clubs, and what subsequent impact this will have on the world’s most popular league.
As time goes by and the dust begins to settle on the pandemic and its economic ripple effect, the picture should start to become a little clearer.
However, if there’s one thing we can be certain of, it’s that the signing of players from Europe has just been made a lot more difficult for Premier League managers, and this may well result in many of Britain’s sides setting their sights on different markets.
Coming from a background in sports journalism, avid football fan Darryl Rigby now works for the Immigration Advice Service in the UK, a law firm that helps people with visa and settlement applications.