From Denmark to Argentina: The real factories of football's most valuable graduates

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From Denmark to Argentina: The real factories of football's most valuable graduates

IMAGO

IMAGO | Brentford’s Mikkel Damsgaard and Tottenham’s Mohammed Kudus are both graduates of FC Nordsjælland’s youth academy.

The Recap

This analysis measures academy output across 315 clubs by the market value their graduates carry relative to their own squad.

Data Insight

FC Nordsjaelland's graduates are worth 7.5 times the value of their current squad, the highest ratio in the dataset.

Why It Matters

Transfer fees reflect who sells players. This shows who actually makes them.

The Perspective

The clubs producing the most valuable graduates relative to their own size are rarely the ones with the biggest reputations.

1 April 2026 - 11:36 AM

Elite academies are often judged by reputation. But reputation is a poor proxy for development. In a transfer market where players move between youth systems constantly, the question of who actually made them becomes genuinely hard to answer.

This analysis applies a stricter definition: only players who progressed directly from a club's youth or reserve team into its first team are counted as graduates. The clubs here are ones that developed talent and opened the door to senior football.

Using Fair Market Values from the March update across 315 clubs in the Off The Pitch database, each club is assessed through a graduate-to-squad value ratio: the total market value of a club's graduates divided by the value of their current squad. 

This single figure captures something that raw graduate counts cannot - not just how many players a club produces, but how much value it generates relative to its own size. Clubs with fewer than 10 graduates are excluded.

The graduate paradox

The most obvious finding cuts against intuition: the biggest clubs are rarely the most productive developers. At clubs where squad depth is built through the transfer market, the pathway from academy to first team is narrow by design. 

Financial strength reduces the need to trust youth. The clubs that lead on both graduate numbers and ratio are largely those operating below the very top tier, teams that are more willing, and often required, to give young players meaningful minutes.

FC Nordsjaelland: Europe's benchmark

At the top of both measures sits FC Nordsjaelland. Their 49 active graduates carry a combined value of €471 million against a current squad value of just €62 million, producing a ratio of 7.5, the highest in the dataset. 

Inseparable from this output is Right to Dream, the investment group behind their Ghanaian academy, which has produced talent across both African and Nordic backgrounds. Mohamed Kudus, Mikkel Damsgaard, Conrad Harder and Simon Adingra alone account for more than €160 million in combined value.

With a ratio of 4.0, AIK are among the European leaders, though the Swedish club's figure is heavily driven by two players: Alexander Isak (€105 million) and Yasin Ayari (€41 million), both now in the Premier League. Beyond that pair, the club's median graduate value stands at €1.6 million.

Three consecutive seasons in the 2. Bundesliga make Schalke 04 an unlikely entry in any list of elite developers. Yet with a squad currently valued at €69 million and graduates worth €263 million, their ratio of 3.8 tells a different story. 

The contributions of Malick Thiaw, Assan Ouédraogo and Weston McKennie are a reminder that academy quality does not always track with first-team performance.

Talent factories

If we look at producing graduates, the next club after FC Nordsjælland are RB Salzburg, who have 48 active players and a total graduate value of €628 million. Dominik Szoboszlai, currently one of Liverpool’s few consistent performers this season, is their most valuable alumnus.

Last summer's departure of Benjamin Sesko to Manchester United for €76.5 million was the latest in a long line of high-value exits from the Austrian club's system.

Five Argentine clubs feature in the global top ten by graduate count, though the picture diverges sharply when value enters the equation. Graduates from River Plate approach €500 million in total, anchored by Julián Álvarez and Enzo Fernández. 

The club also records the highest median graduate value among Argentine sides at €4.4 million, ahead of Boca Juniors (€4.3 million) and Vélez Sarsfield (€3.6 million), the latter posting a ratio of 4.9, second only to Nordsjaelland globally. 

Further down, Argentinos Juniors and San Lorenzo trail significantly with medians of €1 million and €0.6 million respectively.

Ajax and the French connection

Despite recent domestic struggles, Ajax remain one of Europe's most consistent developers. 

Their 39 active graduates carry a combined value of €717 million, led by Ryan Gravenberch and Jurriën Timber, and a median graduate value close to €10 million, nearly double that of AZ Alkmaar (€5.2 million), the Netherlands' second-ranked developer.

Perhaps the most underappreciated name in this analysis is Stade Rennes. With 35 graduates valued at €761 million, one of the highest totals in the dataset, the French club has produced two players above €100 million in Ousmane Dembélé and Désiré Doué, both key contributors to PSG's Champions League-winning squad last season. 

A recent agreement to sell centre-back Jérémy Jacquet to Liverpool for €63.6 million adds further weight to the club's development credentials.

Genoa CEO outlines post-ownership-change plan to strengthen revenues via commercial and academy investment

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Genoa CEO outlines post-ownership-change plan to strengthen revenues via commercial and academy investment

PR

PR | Andrés Blazquez has served as Genoa’s chief executive for more than four years, overseeing the club through the 777 Partners period and now under Romanian businessman Dan Șucu.

The Recap

Genoa chief executive Andrés Blazquez discusses the club's progress one year after the ownership change, highlighting advances in a new academy project and a broader commercial strategy.

Data Insight

The takeover followed a €45 million recapitalisation, while the club continues to report heavy losses and manage annual debt payments of €30–40 million.

Why It Matters

Financial restructuring is shaping decisions across infrastructure, player trading and commercial operations, influencing Genoa’s medium-term competitive trajectory.

The Perspective

The club’s direction reflects broader pressures on Serie A sides to strengthen revenues and balance sheets amid rising costs and sustained losses.

10 December 2025 - 6:53 PM

When Spaniard Andrés Blazquez became CEO of Genoa CFC in 2021, it was during 777 Partners’ acquisition of the club. Four years later, the ownership landscape has shifted significantly. 

The US investment group - previously owners of Vasco da Gama, Standard Liège and Hertha BSC - faced significant financial and legal difficulties that destabilised operations across several of its clubs. In Genoa’s case, these issues resulted in creditor action, with A-CAP taking control.

In December 2024, Romanian businessman Dan Șucu took over 77 per cent of the club in a deal where a €45 million recapitalisation preceded the takeover, becoming president and retaining Blazquez as CEO. One year on, he reflects on progress, ongoing challenges and the direction of the club.

From abbey to academy

One of the visible developments since the change in ownership last year is the revival of the club’s plan to transform a historic abbey into a residence and training hub for Genoa’s academy players. The club purchased the property in 2022 and raised around €5 million through a bond subscribed by roughly 1,000 supporters, but the work slowed significantly as the financial and legal difficulties surrounding 777 Partners and A-CAP deepened.

According to Blazquez, the project only regained momentum once the new owner arrived.

“When the new controlling shareholder and president came in, he provided the liquidity required to complete the project.”

He adds that progress then moved quickly. 

“I think basically about seven months after he came with the funds he provided, we completed the project.”

Around 50 players aged 16 to 20 now live at the site. Previously the academy relied on a rented hotel, where Genoa had limited control over living standards or routines. Blazquez stresses that offering proper conditions matters both for development and for reassuring families. After describing the importance of providing a structured and supportive environment, he says. 

“We control the nutrition, we decide what to eat, we control the quality of the products, and we have tutors on site.”

PR

PR | This summer, the first youth players moved into the old abbey that now serves as Genoa’s new academy residence.

Blazquez believes the club has historically produced strong academy talent, but that the facilities had not matched that record. The remaining works, including adjacent pitches, are scheduled for completion in 2026, and he expects the improved setup to help Genoa continue attracting promising young players.

Working under new ownership

Blazquez describes the current working relationship with the new owner as structured, with a clear plan approved at the outset. Dan Șucu provides overall direction while leaving day-to-day responsibilities to department heads, including the sporting, commercial and executive leadership.

This stands in contrast to the financial instability in the club’s recent past. Under the previous ownership structure, Genoa were forced into several sales they would not otherwise have made. One example was the departure of striker Mateo Retegui, who was sold to Atalanta for around €21 million after just one season; Atalanta then sold him a year later for approximately €68 million. Blazquez points to cases like this as indicative of the pressure the club was under.

He notes that with Șucu’s arrival, the dynamic changed, and the club was able to retain key players through the January window last season - something he considers important for their league campaign. 

“With Dan Sucu coming in, he allowed us, even last year, to not have to sell anyone in January, which was critical to guarantee our permanence in Serie A.”

On-pitch form reflects a season of adjustment. Genoa began the current Serie A campaign poorly and did not win a match until 3 November. However, they have since improved, going five games unbeaten and winning their last two against Hellas Verona and Udinese.

Looking ahead, the objectives remain measured. 

“Now the goal for him is very clear for this year and next year; we want to basically stabilise the club, which means basically competing for a mid-table position,” he says and continues. “After that, when we have smaller financial constraints, we will target better positions in the table.”

A modern revenue strategy

Genoa’s revenue ambitions are wide-ranging. A stadium redevelopment with the city-rivals of Sampdoria is central to their five-year outlook, while sponsorship and merchandise are specifically targeted for immediate growth. 

Blazquez expects commercial and merchandise revenues to rise over the next three years:

“In the current situation, we expect to have an increase over the next three years of about 15 per cent gathered on both aspects. Those are my financial goals.”

PR

PR | On 18 December, it will be exactly one year since Dan Șucu became Genoa’s majority owner.

He explains that the club has significantly expanded their digital audience over the past decade, multiplying its social-media presence several times. Genoa have also invested heavily in international visibility through collaborations and high-profile endorsements, from partnerships with well-known personalities such as The Undertaker and Rita Ora to this season’s UK-focused away shirt campaign.

The strategy is deliberate: the club aims to sell to a wider audience, including people who are not necessarily supporters, by presenting Genoa merchandise as both footballwear and fashion. This includes launching collections designed to be worn casually, outside stadium environments, and developing new product lines such as hats and lifestyle clothing.

Blazquez highlights how consumer behaviour has shifted:

“People must buy your shirts just for the design. So, we're taking that fashion presence for people to combine football and fashion.”

To illustrate the impact, he mentions unusually creative uses of their apparel and the growing number of buyers who treat the shirts as everyday clothing.

The club’s Boca Juniors-inspired collaboration sold out within seven hours. Today, on December 11, a new store is also opening in central Genoa, expanding their physical retail footprint.

Blazquez describes the scale of the commercial transformation by pointing to shirt sales.

“When I came here four years ago, we sold about 700 to 1000 shirts per year, now it’s about 25,000.”

PR

PR | Genoa aim to increase merchandise revenues, including through shirt releases in varied designs.

He also notes that Genoa are not alone in pursuing this approach, acknowledging the work of fellow Italian clubs: Venezia, with their well-known design-led kits, and Roma, with a strong merchandising operation.

Losses, debt and the path back

The financial reality remains challenging. Genoa have reported six consecutive losses exceeding €30 million, including €62 million in 2021/22, and the most recent published accounts, for the financial year ending on 30 June 2025, showed a loss of €33.3 million.

Blazquez explains that part of the recent financial clean-up involved recognising significant historical losses that had accumulated over previous years. According to him, around €70 million linked to earlier player purchases and COVID-period impacts have now been addressed through write-downs.

And reducing debt is a priority for him.

“We want to keep having the right balance between player sales and scouting of new potential players to be able to also bring down the debt that we have, which is still substantial,” he says and continues. “We believe that in two years we’ll be at the level where the debt is sustainable and that's critical for us.”

He underlines the scale of the burden.

“In the case of Genoa, because of the severe debts that were found, plus all the debts that came out that were not revealed by the initial seller, we have to cover an average €30-40 million in debt payment every year, beyond the current requirements.”

“My obsession is to remove this debt that give us a deadweight every year.”

Despite these challenges, he remains confident.

“But now we are back on track, and I believe we will reach the financial goals that we need to over the next two years.”

Next-gen stars: Inside the €912 million market for under-19 talent

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Next-gen stars: Inside the €912 million market for under-19 talent

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IMAGO | FC Barcelona’s Lamine Yamal (17) and Pau Cubarsí (18) – two of the brightest young talents making waves in European football.

Developing talent is a key priority for most clubs – not only because it is more cost-effective than buying established players, but also because young talent represents a highly sellable asset.

This analysis identifies the most valuable football players in the world aged 18 and under.

Why it matters: Europe’s biggest clubs are constantly on the lookout for emerging talent, and we are seeing more young players breaking through at the highest level.

The perspective: Signing the youngest and most promising players is the new battleground, and investment in academy infrastructure is becoming crucial for any club aiming to thrive in this new paradigm.

25 March 2025 - 5:16 PM

Lamine Yamal has taken the football world by storm with his performances for both club and country. In the summer of 2024, he celebrated his 17th birthday just a day before helping Spain win the EUROs, earning the Young Player of the Tournament award in the process.

But beyond Lamine Yamal, how does the next generation of talent stack up globally?

We have analysed the 13 biggest leagues in the world using the Off The Pitch Player Valuation Tool to identify the most valuable players aged 18 and under.

The results reveal a staggering €912 million worth of talent in this age group. According to our model, eight players have already surpassed the €25 million mark — five of whom are just 17 years old.

Plenty of young prospects in Spain

In Spain, we find the famed FC Barcelona academy, La Masia. The club’s dire financial situation over the past couple of years has forced them to rely heavily on young talent from their academy. 

Fortunately, this strategy has paid off, with Lamine Yamal and Pau Cubarsí emerging as the two most valuable players aged 18 and under.

Yamal carries a transfer valuation of €158 million, though his value is slightly impacted by his contract, which expires in July 2026. Due to La Liga regulations for players under 18, his current deal is limited in length. However, Yamal has expressed his desire to renew his contract once he turns 18.

Despite his commitment to the club, FC Barcelona’s ongoing financial struggles make it difficult to offer lucrative long-term deals, potentially opening the door to interest from other clubs.

Meanwhile, Cubarsí is valued at €85.2 million, making him the fourth most valuable centre-back in the world. Unlike Yamal, his future at FC Barcelona is more secure. Having turned 18 in January, he quickly signed a contract extension keeping him at the club until 2029, with a staggering €500 million release clause.

At the Catalan club’s rival, Real Madrid, Endrick is the only player among the 10 most valuable young talents. In 2022, Real Madrid reached an agreement with Palmeiras for his transfer, set to take effect when he turned 18. The reported fee was €47.5 million, excluding bonuses.

At present, his value stands slightly below that figure at €44 million. Limited game time in Real Madrid’s stacked attacking line-up has made it difficult for Endrick to showcase his full potential and boost his market value.

Brazilian winger Estêvão is following a similar path to Endrick. Chelsea have reached an agreement with Palmeiras for his transfer, set to take effect when he turns 18. Currently, his valuation stands at €41.5 million, but Chelsea are securing him for a fee of only €34 million.

Interestingly, Chelsea have reportedly signed another player from the list of the 10 most expensive young talents. Geovany Quenda, a 17-year-old right winger from Sporting Lisbon, has attracted attention despite scoring just one goal in the Portuguese league this season. He is currently valued at €34.5 million.

Another promising player is French midfielder Ayyoub Bouaddi from Lille. At just 17, he is already valued at €27 million, highlighting his immense potential. Despite his young age, he has made his mark in Ligue 1 and is considered one of France’s most exciting prospects.

English talents in the Premier League

In England, no standout young superstar has emerged, but there is a strong pool of young talent spread across the Premier League and the Championship.1

In North London, two young talents have broken into Arsenal’s first team. Myles Lewis-Skelly and Ethan Nwaneri have both taken advantage of injuries in the squad to earn valuable minutes. Nwaneri, valued at €35 million, has benefited from regular playing time and has made goal contributions in both the Premier League and the Champions League.

Arsenal’s injury problems have played a major role in their rise. With key attackers like Saka, Havertz, and Martinelli sidelined, Arteta has turned to Nwaneri to fill the gaps in attack. In defence, injuries have created an opening for Lewis-Skelly, who currently holds a market valuation of €15.25 million.

Newly crowned Carabao Cup winners Newcastle also have a promising young talent in Lewis Miley. At just 18 years old, he is already valued at €22 million. Miley broke into the first team last season but has struggled with injuries this campaign.

Across the River Tyne, Sunderland have their own rising star in 17-year-old Chris Rigg, who has played almost every game this season. Currently valued at €16 million, he could be a key figure in Sunderland’s future.

Which league has the most talent value?

To determine which leagues have the most valuable young talent, we summed the player values for each of the 13 biggest leagues.

La Liga has a total of €313 million in value, followed by the Premier League at €139 million.

South American leagues continue to produce young talent, despite top European clubs scouting and signing players early in their careers. The Brazilian and Argentinian leagues alone account for €94 million and €29.5 million worth of talent under the age of 19, respectively.

The Saudi Pro League has by far the fewest young talents among the major leagues, with just €1.25 million worth of players under the age of 19 — more than ten times less than the Dutch league, which ranks second to last in this category.

In recent years, the Saudi Pro League has made headlines for its massive spending on star players, bringing in names like Neymar, Duran, and Ivan Toney. However, when it comes to developing young talent, the Saudi league appears to be falling short.

While top clubs like Al-Hilal and Al-Nassr compete with Europe’s elite in transfer market spending, they significantly lag in talent production. The data suggests that there are virtually no noteworthy under-19 prospects in the entire league.

One factor to consider is that the Saudi Pro League only recently lowered the age restriction for player eligibility from 18 to 16 at the start of the 2023/24 season. Having players under the age of 18 is a very new phenomenon in the league, which could help explain the current lack of young talent.

Crisis opens opportunity

For players under the age of 19 to break into top clubs, they must either perform exceptionally well in training or receive opportunities due to squad issues.

There is no doubt that La Masia has a history of producing world-class talent, with legends like Messi, Xavi, and Iniesta emerging from the academy. However, having regular starters at just 17 years old is a relatively new trend for FC Barcelona.

Between 2017 and 2020, Barcelona spent massive sums to replace Neymar, signing Coutinho, Dembélé, and Griezmann. Following a financial mess and league restrictions, the club has shifted its focus back to its academy, which has proven successful.

FC Barcelona still recruits senior players in the transfer market, such as Raphinha, Lewandowski, and Dani Olmo, but La Masia talents now have a direct pathway into the first team.

Lamine Yamal is still just 17 years old and made his debut at 15 in March 2023, becoming the youngest player ever to play for the club.

His talent is undeniable, as he has consistently proven. However, if FC Barcelona had not faced financial struggles, it's possible Yamal wouldn’t have progressed as quickly as he has today.

Thursday briefing: The United Soccer League to introduce promotion and relegation system

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Thursday briefing: The United Soccer League to introduce promotion and relegation system

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IMAGO

Manchester clubs accused of age-fraud

DAZN teams up with McDonald’s to offer three-month Ligue 1 subscriptions

Atletico Madrid ‘consider’ ceding 2030 World Cup hosting rights to Valencia

20 March 2025 - 4:30 AM

The United Soccer League (USL) has revealed plans to incorporate promotion and relegation, following majority approval from club owners.

The move sees the USL become the first US-based football league to adopt a promotion and relegation system, and comes as part of a plan to align with elite European divisions.

In February, the USL announced the launch of a new Division One league, which will take effect from the 2027/28 season. Once established, this will form part of a three-tiered system alongside the USL Championship and USL League One.

USL looking to “transform” football landscape in the US

“Promotion and relegation transforms the competitive landscape of American soccer," said Paul McDonough, president of the USL.

“With the 2026 World Cup and other major international events approaching, we have a unique opportunity to build on that momentum and create a sustainable future for the sport in the U.S.

“This shift challenges the status quo and brings a level of excitement and relevance that can elevate the game across the country.”

 

 

Manchester clubs accused of age-fraud

Manchester United and Manchester City have been accused of age fraud involving six academy players, following an investigation led by The Telegraph.

Both Manchester clubs have reportedly been made aware of photographs and documents which indicate that several foreign-born academy players are in fact older than their listed ages.

Although their identities have not been revealed, three of the academy players in question have played for England.

Manchester United response

A statement from United said: “We are committed to operating all aspects of our academy within the rules and regulations laid down by our governing bodies, including in the recruitment and registration of players.

“We take our responsibilities for player wellbeing and safeguarding very seriously. Indeed, we take pride in the reputation we have developed for considering the participants in our programmes as first and foremost children, rather than players.

 

 

DAZN teams up with McDonald’s to offer three-month Ligue 1 subscriptions

DAZN has partnered with McDonald’s to offer 120,000 customers in France a three-month Ligue 1 subscription if they purchase a meal from the fast food franchise.

The UK-based broadcaster will provide customers who order from the special Ligue 1 menu on McDonald’s’ French delivery app with an access code, enabling access to Ligue 1 coverage for the remainder of the 2024/25 season.

The Ligue 1 deal is priced at €14.15, which is a fraction of DAZN’s €39.99 month-to-month subscription free.

Resolution between DAZN and LFP

Until recently, DAZN had been embroiled in a legal dispute with the French Football League (LFP), regarding its Ligue 1 rights. The company withheld half of its payment from LFP in February, and demanded €573 million in compensation.

The legal battle between the broadcaster and governing body was put to bed at the end of February, when DAZN agreed to pay the outstanding €35 million, and dropped its case.

 

 

Atletico Madrid ‘consider’ ceding 2030 World Cup hosting rights to Valencia

Atletico Madrid are considering ceding hosting rights for the 2030 FIFA men’s World Cup to Valencia, according to Relevo.

The Spanish club are open to allowing Valencia’s Nou Mestalla stadium to serve as a host for the tournament in place of the Metrapolitano. Atletico Madrid CEO Miguel Ángel Gil Marín met with Rafael Louzán, the president of the Royal Spanish Football Federation (RFEF), to discuss this possibility.

By withdrawing the Metropolitano as a host venue, Atleti would lose out on around €20 million in revenue.

Nou Mestalla set to open in time for the World Cup

In January, Valencia confirmed plans to resume construction of the Nou Mestalla, which is set to be completed by summer 2027.

In order to be eligible to host matches at the 2030 World Cup, stadiums must be available more than one month before the competition kicks off, as per FIFA’s guidelines.

“A technical director will take over. Then I will just be father to the club” – how Slovakian club facilitated transfer of 31 Ghanaian players to Europe

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“A technical director will take over. Then I will just be father to the club” – how Slovakian club facilitated transfer of 31 Ghanaian players to Europe

PR

PR | The owner of the football club MSK Zilina Africa, Ishmael Lamptey

Football academies across West Africa, thrive without fans, stadiums, or traditional income, focusing solely on developing and selling talent like Muhammed Kudus and Simon Adingra from Right To Dream – now at West Ham and Brighton.

Ishmael Lamptey, owner of MSK Zilina Africa, nurtures young talent from disadvantaged backgrounds, providing opportunities both on and off the pitch.

Why it matters: Despite regulatory challenges and ethical concerns, academies can offer a profitable model locally and in Europe through player transfers and FIFA’s training development rewards.

The perspective: There are various business models among academies in Ghana, and investors are closely monitoring to identify the best returns.

1 August 2024 - 2:11 PM

Accra - Imagine a club with no fans, no proper stadium and no history. There are no TV rights to speak of, nor traditional income streams – other than player trading.

Indeed, that is the one thing that these clubs – known as academies – exist for: as a platform to develop and sell talented players to other clubs, especially beyond their own borders. 

If this sounds like a dystopian vision of football’s future, it is not, for it is already here. 

These footballing academies exist all over West Africa, but in Ghana they are especially prevalent, and growingly successful. And amongst the best operators are those formally linked to European clubs.

The most famous of these academies is Right to Dream, which is tied to the Danish club FC Nordsjaelland and has produced stars like Muhammed Kudus and Simon Adringa. Besiktas and Juventus also possess academies in Ghana, although, like Right to Dream, neither competes in the league. WAFA, which was tied to Feyenoord and the Red Bull clubs, competed in the Ghana Premier League until 2022.

But few European teams with a profile as low as Slovakia’s MSK Zilina have an African outpost. Yet in Osu, a coastal suburb just outside central Accra lies its sister club, which competes in Ghana’s second division - MSK Zilina Africa.

Since an agreement was made between the Slovakian and Ghanian clubs in 2018, 31 players have passed from the African outpost to Europe.  Some of these players will never make it at a European club. Others, such as the 20-year-old defensive midfielder, Samuel Gidi, will become important first team players for the Slovakians. 

The best of these players, will use it as a staging post for transfers to bigger and better leagues, making both the Slovakian club and its Ghanian sister club a tidy profit.

In January’s transfer window Kingsford Boakye joined Everton from MSK Zilina for an undisclosed fee and the winger Henry Adoo signed for Maccabi Haifa for €1 million.

As the model matures and improves, such signings will become increasingly commonplace. It is worth mentioning that Ghanian football lost two seasons during MSK Africa’s short existence: once to a massive FA corruption scandal that saw the season cancelled, and once to Covid. Officials say they have barely got started.

Social mission

MSK Zilina Africa is owned by Ishmael Lamptey, a Ghanian construction magnate, who has built his club from scratch. It was formally a team he created during his time working as a volunteer in an orphanage in the 1990s. 

He speaks of a strong sense of social mission and the desire to improve the lives of young men in Ghana, where youth unemployment is high and opportunities are slim. Even a top professional footballer for one of the biggest clubs in the country earns just $500 per month; most earn a fraction of that. 

He explains how “90 per cent” of his players come from disadvantaged backgrounds. Some were street children, abandoned by their parents. Some had their growth stunted through lack of nutrition. The problems, he believes, are more psychological when they become young men.

“Always they need somebody close to them,” he says. “They need more mental coaching, [someone] telling them, it's not the end yet, you have a future ahead, you are still young, you can make it when you are determined and you focus your days. They need more encouragement to let them feel at home. That will bring them back to society.”

Lamptey knows what it is to be a poor young Ghanian, for he was once one himself. He started as a “Barday” – which means “By Day”. Essentially Bardays are day labourers who are paid on a daily basis and carry a low social and professional status in Ghana. 

PR

PR | The highest fee MSK Zilina Africa have received up front for a player was $150,000

To rise above that and to own a large construction company and football club says much about Lamptey’s values of hard work and entrepreneurship. He is a larger-than-life character in every way.  

He talks in terms of “vision” rather than “dreams” – “Dreams are when you sleep, you have dreams. But when you wake up, it doesn't come to reality,” he says. He describes himself as a “father” to the boys, something I didn’t know whether to take at face value, but later, unprompted, one of his stars calls him “Dad” in front of me.

Unravelling the business

Lamptey says that the Slovakian club provide kits and technical equipment rather than hard cash to his team. But most importantly they provide a first step for the Ghanian players to enter the European football market. 

“Zilina became a very good opportunity for us so that some of the players can get professional level football contracts,” he says. But Zilina have also provided a point of contact with other clubs in Europe and helped facilitate other deals.

Among those clubs are AC Milan, who initially signed Boakye. When that move didn’t work out, the Slovakian club held his registration while Boakye’s agent arranged the transfer to Everton in January. 

The centre back Kingsley Gyamfi is at Hammarby in Sweden and has attracted the interest of Dutch giants Ajax.  Another of MSK’s defenders is being tracked by Borussia Dortmund. 

Lamptey, nevertheless, says it is difficult to get European clubs to pay an up front transfer fee for a player. FIFA figures show that of the near $10 billion spent globally on transfers in 2023, of every $1000 spent, just 76 cents made its way back to African clubs – and the majority of that went to teams in Egypt and Morocco. 

The highest fee they have received up front for a player was $150,000. A few others have gone for $50,000 or $100,000. Harmmarby paid $100,000 for Gyamfi, but Lamptey’s club retained a 30 per cent sell on fee. “I think it was a good transfer for us,” he says.

Most often, Lamptey tells me, clubs like MSK Africa allow European teams to bet on the future. The European team take a player without paying an upfront fee, and if they move that player on to a bigger team or a bigger league for a transfer fee then they all benefit.

“Some people don't want to take their risk of putting money in now, so you go in for the percentage 50-50 and I give the player for free,” he says.  “When you sell them, then you get 50 per cent, because we have developed. Sometimes it is 60-40 for a free transfer.”

There is a further incentive for clubs to train and develop young players. Under FIFA rules, clubs who developed young players that were then sold for a fee later in their career, get solidarity payments worth up to 10 per cent of the total transfer fee. 

Those who clubs trained from the age of 12 get training development rewards, according to a fixed method. According to FIFA $115 million was distributed globally via this method last year. They expect this total to rise to $400 million within a few years. 

Therefore, of the $162 million spent globally on the 607 Ghanaian players that moved clubs last year, millions will have found its way back to Ghanaian clubs and academies. All of this makes the business model worthwhile.  

Earning potential

What can a club earn from one of these transfers?

The case of Osman Bukari, now a current Ghana national team member who previously played for Accra Lions, was flagged up as a particular success story for this business model.

PR

PR | The MSK Zilina players during a training session

Lions sold Bukari to FC Trencin in the Slovak Premier League in 2018 for €60,000. Trencin subsequently sold him on to Gent in Belgium for €1million in 2020. Gent then sold him to Red Star Belgrade two years later for €3 million. This summer he joins Austin in the MLS for €7 million.

If we assume that Lions had a 30 per cent sell on fee, as well as the €60,000 they received up front, they will have received another €300,000 in 2020. In addition, according to FIFA’s training rewards calculator, they will also have received in the region of another €100,000 in transfer solidarity payments over the past four years.

Junior clubs that he played for between the ages of 12-17 would, in addition, be eligible for training development payments, possibly totalling six figure sums – assuming those clubs are properly registered.

Given such numbers, it’s unsurprising that Bukari’s Ghanian club – which was only founded in 2016 – has attracted external investment from a consortium that includes Lothar Matthaeus.

FA scrutiny

Academy clubs like MSK are nevertheless not without criticism. 

A Ghana FA official told Off The Pitch that while Ghana’s national teams had benefitted from players to emerge from academy clubs, the GFA had faced all manner of regulatory challenges from academies. These went as far as some academy teams refusing to play matches under its jurisdiction and operating in an entirely unregulated environment. 

Other academy clubs, the official said, were merely “paper entities”, whereby they existed as a limited company and held and traded player registrations, but didn’t actually play any sort of meaningful matches, nor did they hold any of the traditional infrastructure of a football club. These scenarios breed concerns including human trafficking, match fixing and money laundering. 

You treat them like your kids

The GFA had moved to tighten the sector over recent years and these bad actors had either been closed down, the official added, or forced to comply with GFA regulations. 

Father figure

Lamptey gives the impression of being governed by a strong moral code. His club doesn’t retain players past the age of 20, but if they haven’t moved them on to Europe by that age they will try and move the player on to another Ghanian club. 

What if that doesn’t work out? How will players who have relied on him for everything – lodging and education and food and companionship – exist beyond football? 

“That is why we let them learn something,” he says.  “Some of them, I am working with them on my construction firm. Some of them, they are working in the production of my brick factory. Some of them, they are with my electrical team. So, when you are not able to make it in the soccer, we assist them so that they may earn something.”

In his Landcruiser we go from the rented training pitches to the development where he is building a permanent home for the club. He is omnipresent, ubiquitous, bantering with coaches and asking questions of his players. He has a word for everybody. 

“You treat them like your kids,” he explains. “So all of them, they call me father, because I make sure that they see me like I'm their mom, I'm their dad, I make sure everything is okay, so they don't need to think when they wake up: whatever they need is there for them.”

We meet Kingsford Boakye, who is on close season with Everton, and another of MSK’s players, Benson Anana who is now playing in Cyprus and has three caps for the Black Stars. They are staying in a new build house opposite Lamptey’s own mansion.

Lamptey tells me that funding for the club has primarily come from his own pocket, although FIFA solidarity payments and training rewards are reducing their need. Profits, he insists, will go back into the club. 

“I mix it all together because I love what I'm doing so I always make sure everything is in order,” he says. “But as time goes on, a technical director will take over. Then I will just be father to the club.”

At the back of the part-built housing development he takes me to the site of the new stadium he will build for the club when FIFA comes good with its solidarity payments.

At the moment it is a patch of scrubland lined with breezeblock walls, but for him it is his field of dreams.

“You come back here in three years and we’ll have a proper stadium,” he says.

Valuation analysis: Who are the most valuable U21 attackers?

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Valuation analysis: Who are the most valuable U21 attackers?

Xavi Simons

IMAGO | Dutch talent Xavi Simons, who is currently on loan to RB Leipzig from PSG, is one of the most valuable U21-players

As the winter transfer window approaches, top-tier clubs in lackluster form will be on the hunt to bolster their squads with young, talented players.

Our analysis casts the spotlight on the world's most valuable under-21 attackers, spanning 10 leagues, through the lens of the Off The Pitch Player Valuation Tool.

Why it matters: In a dynamic football industry, new talents constantly pop up with rocketing valuations. Identifying these rising stars is instrumental to secure the right talent for the right price.

The perspective: A deep dive into the non-Big 5 leagues reveal top prodigies, who may boast lower valuations but exhibit talent that rival their peers in bigger leagues.

27 November 2023 - 1:30 PM

In just a month, the transfer window opens again, and the football world enters its frenzy, eagerly spotlighting the brightest emerging talents. Lately, transfer windows have been marked by staggering fees for young, promising players, with clubs betting big on their potential to become the stars of tomorrow.

Among these rising stars, attackers often shine the brightest, captivating fans with their graceful dribbling and impressive goal-scoring feats. A glance through history confirms this trend: record-breaking transfers for players under 21 always involve attackers.

Therefore, this analysis highlights the most valuable under-21 attackers in the world right now, according to the Off The Pitch Player Valuation Tool, and how they got there.

The most valuable under-21 attackers

A closer look at the market's most prized under-21 forwards puts Brighton's Evan Ferguson at the forefront, edging out his Premier League peer, Rasmus Hojlund. Despite their similar age and valuation journey, their paths to prominence have unfolded in distinctive ways.

Ferguson was snapped up by Brighton in Bohemians when he was just 16 years old, and since then, he has worked his way through the ranks at the Seagulls. 

In this season, Ferguson has become more of a regular despite scoring in “only” three out of 14 season appearances. Still, his remarkable entrance into a strong Premier League side at just 18 years old sets his valuation at a whopping €88.4 million, according to the Off The Pitch Player Valuation Tool.

Rasmus Hojlund's career, conversely, has been a mosaic of experiences across several elite European teams, including stints at FC Copenhagen, Sturm Graz, and Atalanta. Manchester United's recent €75 million investment truly brought him into the limelight this summer. 

Although the young Dane is still on the hunt for his first Premier League goal, his current high valuation finds justification in his impressive title as the current top scorer in this season’s Champions League.

Another interesting entry in the top 6 is Paris-Saint Germain’s Dutch talent Xavi Simons, who is currently on loan to RB Leipzig. Simons' journey was fraught with challenges in Paris, which led to his move to PSV Eindhoven in 2022. 

It was in the Netherlands where his talent truly blossomed, earning him the esteemed Johan Cruyff Trophy after an outstanding season. This prompted PSG to trigger a buy-back clause, and they have since lent him to RB Leipzig where Simons’ 14 goal contributions this season underscore his incredible talent.

In contrast, Elye Wahi of RC Lens appears to have deftly evaded the limelight more so than his peers in the top 6. At just 20, Wahi boasts an impressive tally of 33 career goals in Ligue 1. 

His remarkable 19 league goals for Montpellier in the previous season prompted Lens to break their transfer record, shelling out €30 million for the French forward. Should Wahi continue his success in Lens, he will undoubtably be a bargain even at a €43.5 million valuation.

A look outside the Big 5 leagues

When it comes to discovering the next upcoming talents, it is not enough just to look to the Big 5 leagues. This analysis casts a wide net to include the Portuguese Primeira Liga, English Championship, Dutch Eredivisie, Brazilian Serie A, and Belgian Pro League in its search for the most exceptional under-21 attackers.

Leading the pack is Athletico Paranaense's Vitor Roque, an 18-year-old Brazilian whose valuation has soared past €40 million. Roque's 2023 season has been nothing short of remarkable, with a stunning 28 goal contributions to his name. His potential has already been recognized by FC Barcelona, who will bring him to their squad July 1 2024 for a reported €40 million.

Yet, not all talents blaze as visibly. Marcos Leonardo of Santos has quietly built an impressive portfolio. At 20 years old, he's already a veteran with 164 senior appearances, netting 54 times. Given the ever-lasting desire for young Brazilian attackers in Europe, it seems inevitable that a European heavyweight will soon beckon. 

PSV Eindhoven’s homegrown talent Johan Bakayoko should also not go unnoticed. Bakayoko has become a solid starter for PSV this season and contributed to their perfect record in 12 games in the Eredivisie.  

Coupled with Bakayoko also becoming a regular in Belgium’s national team, his €32.8 million valuation is poised to climb as the season progresses.

Conclusion: Young attackers destined for the big stage

In the dynamic world of football, the rise of exceptional young attackers is not a matter of if but when. Our analysis has shone a light on under-21 prodigies whose careers are unmistakably geared towards high-profile transfers.

Evan Ferguson and Xavi Simons represent the crème de la crème within the Big 5 leagues, demonstrating that the next generation of elite forwards is already making waves. 

Meanwhile, talents like Vitor Roque and Johan Bakayoko are making a name for themselves beyond these borders, tearing up the Brazil's Serie A and the Dutch Eredivisie respectively.

As such, these young forwards are not just waiting on the wings—they are stepping into the spotlight with an inevitable move to larger stages in the coming transfer windows.

The price of potential: Are the most valuable under-18 players worth it?

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The price of potential: Are the most valuable under-18 players worth it?

PSG

IMAGO | Warren Zaire-Emery, Paris Saint-Germain, are one of the most valuable U18 players in the world

With progress in scouting abilities and data availability, talents are being spotted and acquired at earlier ages than ever before.

This analysis identifies the most valuable under-18 players and examines whether previously pricy youngsters have proven to be worth the gamble.

Why it matters: Acquiring wonderkids in the highly competitive market leads to massive fees for unproven players at the professional level. Understanding the true value of these talents is instrumental for both buyers and sellers navigating this landscape

The perspective: Established world-class players in their early 30s can be priced similarly to under-18 prospects. Is the gamble of investing in potential worth it or does the dependability of routine triumph?

6 July 2023 - 11:13 AM

In an increasingly competitive transfer market, club scouts are tasked with identifying promising prospects at younger ages. Even as unproven teenagers playing at the youth level, these players can command sky-high values, turning them into high-stakes investments for clubs.

Using the Off The Pitch Player Valuation Tool, this analysis showcases the most valuable under-18 footballers across ten leagues. In addition, we reveal historic trends in purchasing former expensive teen players, highlighting the inadvertent lottery resemblance of paying hefty sums for uncut gems.

The most valuable under-18 players

According to our model, three under-18 players surpass the €10 million mark, emphasizing their immense potential.

Leading the pack is Endrick from Palmeiras, a 16-year-old Brazilian talent valued at €26.2 million. Despite his young age, Real Madrid have already secured his services from 2024 for a reported €37.5 million. However, Endrick has faced challenges in gaining playing time at Palmeiras, starting only one out of twelve games in the current Brazilian Serie A season, which may prompt concerns for Los Blancos.

The other two players exceeding €10 million, Warren Zaire-Emery and Leny Yoro, have enjoyed more substantial playing opportunities. Zaire-Emery has earned a spot in Paris Saint-Germain's starting eleven under Galtier, featuring for 90 minutes in four of the last five Ligue 1 matches this season. Notably, he also became the youngest player to start in a Champions League knockout game, when Bayern Munich eliminated the Parisians.

Although at a less prolific address, 17-year-old centre-back Leny Yoro also caught attention in Ligue 1. Serving as a dependable rotational player for Lille, Yoro became their youngest senior player, breaking the record set by none other than Eden Hazard.

Beyond these three highly valued under-18 players, several talents are priced in the €4-6 million range. Among them are Brazilian offensive prospects like Luis Guilherme from Palmeiras and Pedrinho from Corinthians. 

Additionally, noteworthy is the presence of young players at established world-class clubs such as Julien Duranville at Dortmund and Paul Wanner at Bayern Munich.

Although both Duranville and Wanner have barely had first-team playing time, their presence in the senior squads of the German giants implies the possibility of a sudden breakthrough, mirroring Zaire-Emery's rise in Paris, which justifies a multi-million price tag.

Multi-million fees have been lottery tickets

The high price tags on these under-18 wonderkids reveal an inevitable risk: Whether it's the €37.5 million signing of Endrick or a €4.2 million price for Pedrinho, substantial investments are needed for coveted wonderkids who yet to prove themselves much at the professional level.

Still, there has been a notable increase in transfer spending on under-18 players over the past six years, indicating a growing inclination to invest in younger talents for higher fees.

Although this trend has experienced a recent decline, it can be partially attributed to a shift towards pre-contract agreements that are only finalized once the player reaches the age of 18.

One such example is Real Madrid's agreement to sign Endrick. Similarly, this summer, Chelsea secured a reported €20 million deal for 16-year-old Ecuadorian Kendry Páez, who will join the club in 2025. 

These pre-contract agreements not only provide big clubs with early access to talent, but they also circumvent FIFA's article 19, which restricts international transfers of under-18 players.

Naturally, the surge in young signings raises the question: Have previous high-priced wonderkid signings proven to be worthwhile investments or were they money down the drain? The top 10 biggest under-18 transfers of all time offer a two-fold narrative.

For a success story, one needs to look no further than Dortmund. The club completed two of the three most expensive under-18 transfers, acquiring Jude Bellingham and Jadon Sancho, both at the age of 17. 

Aside from their instrumental contributions on the field, Dortmund went on to sell the duo for a combined €188 million, excluding potential add-ons for Bellingham's sale to Real Madrid. Therefore, although €50 million for two 17-year-olds seems exorbitant, Dortmund have proven it can be lucrative to snatch the top youth players regardless of the cost.

However, the same cannot be said for AS Monaco, who have three entries in the top 10 list. In 2018, Monaco purchased the then 16-year-old striker Pietro Pellegri from Genoa for €20.9 million, hoping he would fill the void left by Kylian Mbappé. Unfortunately, Pellegri managed only two goals in his time at Monaco before being sold to Torino for a mere €4.2 million. 

Monaco's other two entries, Willem Geubbels and Arthur Zagré, have also struggled to live up to expectations. Geubbels spent less than 400 minutes in a Monaco shirt before moving to St. Gallen on a free transfer. Zagré, after several underwhelming loan spells, has seen his value plummet. Returning from a six-month stint at Excelsior in 2023, Zagré is currently valued at just €1.2 million, a fraction of Monaco's initial investment.

What established players are similar priced to expensive wonderkids?

The tales of Dortmund and Monaco highlight the gamble involved in acquiring wonderkids, which can yield either immense rewards or disappointing outcomes.

Therefore, caution is advised when evaluating the price tags of the most valuable under-18 players identified in this analysis. To provide context, we have identified established players in similar price ranges who play in the same positions.

It's important to note that the immediate wage costs for players like Lindelöf and Mkhitaryan would be immense compared to Yoro and Wanner. 

Yet the fact that they are valued similarly underscores the risks involved when clubs invest millions in 17-year-olds who have yet to accumulate substantial playing time. Regardless, if these young talents evolve into superstars, their fees would be considered nominal in hindsight, as exemplified by the success of Bellingham and Sancho.

Greater London has the lion’s share: Exploring the birthplace hotspots for Premier League footballers

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Greater London has the lion’s share: Exploring the birthplace hotspots for Premier League footballers

Ben White

Alamy | The most prominent southwest England-born talent currently is Arsenal's Ben White

Many children dream of making it to the Premier League, but mapping where the league’s footballers come from reveals the opportunities to be unequal.

By mapping the birthplaces of nearly 3,000 current and former Premier League players, we investigate regional and international hotspots for their origins.

Why it matters: Living in a region with numerous Premier League clubs evidently offers significant advantages for aspiring players. Should academies expand their search beyond their immediate area to uncover hidden talent?

The perspective: A substantial portion of foreign-born EPL players hail from several small countries in Northern Europe, while non-European birth countries are scarcely represented in the data, even before adjusting for population differences.

31 March 2023 - 12:30 PM

Football's biggest stage, the Premier League, has long been the goal for children who wish to pursue a career in the sport. Yet, the journey from local pitch to global spotlight is marked by disparities in access and opportunities based on geographic origins.

In this analysis, we provide a unique mapping of the Premier League that investigates the regional and international birthplaces of players, exposing the unequal landscape that shapes the future stars of football.

To grasp the trends across time rather than a single snapshot, we focus on almost 3,000 players that have represented either a first or U23 team of the 35 clubs that have played in the Premier League since 2012.

Within England: Greater-London kids have the best conditions to reach the Premier League

The map shows where English-born Premier League footballers come from by region. The figures have been adjusted for how many players came from a region per one million inhabitants in that region. The small grey stadium icons indicate where the 35 Premier League clubs are located.

The general tendency is that the more Premier-League clubs there are in your region, the more likely you will be able to become a footballer in the league. 

Even when accounting for population differences, Greater London remains ahead of the pack with just over 36 EPL players per million inhabitants. The only other region that closely compares is the North West with 32 players per million inhabitants.

Collectively, these regions are home to all traditional top-six teams with each hosting three. In the North West, you'll find the Manchester clubs and Liverpool, while Arsenal, Chelsea, and Tottenham are located in Greater London.

If we turn to key players in the current league, it is also these two regions that prevail when identifying birth places. Prominent England internationals to have experienced their entire football development in these areas include Bukayo Saka, Harry Kane and Trent Alexander-Arnold. 

On the flip side, regions surrounding Greater London are far sparser in their fostering of EPL footballers. 

Consider the southwest region, for example, where AFC Bournemouth have been the sole EPL representative over the past ten years. In this area, there have been fewer than 11 EPL players per million residents. Nonetheless, the most prominent southwest England-born talent currently is Arsenal's Ben White, although his initial football journey unfolded in the southeast with Brighton.

A similar tale can be told for the East Midlands where only two clubs are found: Leicester City and Nottingham Forest. Despite having produced former stars such as Gary Lineker and Gary Cahill, the pickings are slim currently with just 10.9 EPL players per million inhabitants in the last decade.

The foreigners: Frenchmen at the top but smaller nations also prevail

Although it is essential to address the regional disparities within England, an outright mapping of the Premier League necessitates a look beyond national borders. 

In recent decades, the league has seen an influx of foreign talents, who have contributed to cementing the Premier League’s status as perhaps the most competitive football league in the world.

In fact, the data show that as much as 58.7 per cent of Premier League footballers over the last decade were born outside England. For the 2022/23 season alone, the figure is 68.7 per cent, showing less than a third of the EPL to be Englishmen.

The table shows where all these foreign players actually come from.

Although Brazil is currently the most common birthplace for foreign-born players in the Premier League, the historical data puts France and Spain ahead of the South American country in this regard, with those European countries accounting for 12.3 per cent and 9.1 per cent of foreign players respectively. That is to say that almost a quarter of all foreign-born Premier League footballers in the last decade came from France or Spain.

There are several other interesting entries in the top 15. For example, the Scandinavian countries are hotspots with top-15 rankings for both Denmark and Sweden despite their small populations. Interestingly, when combining Denmark, Sweden and Norway, the Scandinavian trio has a share as high as 6.2 per cent - enough to put the country group above Brazil at third place. 

This is perhaps unsurprising with the surge of young Scandinavian talents such as Erling Haaland, Martin Odegaard, Alexander Isak and Dejan Kulusevski having arrived in the league in recent years.

Neither should Côte d'Ivoire go unnoticed as the only African nation in the top 15, having produced Premier League legends such as Didier Drogba, Yaya Touré and Kolo Touré. The same could be said for the Netherlands, which has a population of just 17.5 million but a 5.3 per cent share of the foreign players in the league - with countless greats among them.

A global stage with unequal opportunities

The Premier League is undoubtedly a global league, attracting talent from all corners of the world. The influx of international players has enriched the league and contributed to its status as one of the most competitive football leagues worldwide. However, this analysis reveals a stark reality: The opportunities to play in the Premier League are far from equal for everyone, as geographical origins matter.

Children born in Greater London or the northwest of England have a significant advantage in terms of exposure and access to Premier League clubs.

Similarly, players from Scandinavia, France, and Spain have a higher likelihood of making it to the Premier League. On the other hand, regions surrounding Greater London, such as the southwest and East Midlands, lag in terms of producing Premier League talent.

Transfer analysis: Who are the most valuable under-24 players to keep an eye on?

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Transfer analysis: Who are the most valuable under-24 players to keep an eye on?

Nuno Mendes

Alamy | Nuno Mendes, Paris Saint-Germain, is the most valuable under-24 in Ligue 1

In any transfer window, focus is often concentrated on rising stars as securing their signatures can result in success far into the future.

This analysis highlights the six most valuable under-24 players in each of the big-five leagues and discusses which names stand out. Also, other talented prospects with contract expirations this summer are uncovered.

Why it matters: Young talent and the expected stars of tomorrow are what all clubs are looking at. However, the most valuable young players in the big five are only affordable for the most affluent teams.

The perspective: This analysis shows how player valuation used in conjunction with details on contracts and player performance can be utilised to determine potential scoops on the transfer market.

10 January 2023 - 1:08 PM

Right now, the biggest clubs in Europe are searching for the next young star to lead their team to victory, while clubs further down in the pyramid hope to cash in on selling these youngsters. 

Several valuable young assets have already been picked up in this transfer window. Cody Gakpo, 23, made a €42 million transfer to Liverpool from PSV and most recently, Chelsea signed 21-year-old France defender Benoit Badiashile from AS Monaco in a €40 million deal.

Who will be this window’s next big prospect sale?

In this analysis, we look at the most valuable under-24 players in the big-five leagues: The Premier League, LaLiga, Serie A, Bundesliga, and Ligue 1.

In addition, we also highlight interesting players in this age group whose contracts are set to expire this summer, potentially making them bargain signings.

The biggest under-24 prospects

The figure below shows the six most valuable under-24 players from each of the leagues, according to the Off The Pitch Player Valuation Tool.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, it is the major teams in each league whose squads include these expensive talents. 

In fact, the entire top six for LaLiga is dominated by FC Barcelona and Real Madrid with three players each. FC Barcelona’s central midfield duo, Pedri and Gavi, are among the youngest on the list with their respective ages of just 20 and 18. 

Regarding World Cup talents, Jude Bellingham tops Jamal Musiala in the Bundesliga rankings with a massive €105.7 million valuation. Interestingly, the Bundesliga also has the two most valuable young centre-backs in Matthijs de Ligt and Joško Gvardiol. Whereas the former is sitting comfortably at Bayern Munich, Gvardiol is rumoured to be leaving Leipzig this winter with alleged interest from top clubs such as Chelsea, Manchester City, and Real Madrid.

Erling Haaland tops not only the Premier-League prospect rankings, but his €174.3 million valuation makes him the most valuable player in the world, according to the Off The Pitch Player Valuation Tool. 

Two other (though less successful) summer signings accompany Haaland as Darwin Núñez and Antony are also found in the top six. Finally, Reece James is the most valuable under-24 defender in the world with a valuation of €76.8 million.

The top six for Ligue 1 is unsurprisingly dominated by Paris Saint-Germain. Most interestingly, Gianluigi Donnarumma reigns in 2nd place as the only goalkeeper across all the top sixes. The 23-year-old has been playing at the top level since he was 16 and received his international debut for Italy at 17. So it is no surprise that his expected transfer fee is €52.7 million – far above those of all other under-24 goalkeepers. 

Finally, the Serie A rankings most notably include the two in-form left-wingers Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Rafael Leão. Kvaratskhelia just joined Napoli this summer, but Leão is a coveted transfer target despite his massive €88 million valuation. However, as AC Milan also have Sandro Tonali and Pierre Kalulu in this top six, their opportunities for making a lucrative young prospect sale extends beyond just Leão. 

Young bargains with contract expirations this summer

Naturally, the most valuable rising stars are only feasible as acquisitions for a very small selection of affluent clubs. So we are also including six additional under-24 prospects whose contracts expire this summer, possibly making them free agents despite their massive potential.

The standout names are Evan Ndicka and Youssoufa Moukoko as their valuations exceeded €30 million before their contract duration fell within six months.

Despite only being 23 years old, Ndicka remains a solid figure in Eintracht Frankfurt’s defence for the fifth consecutive season. The Frenchman has played every minute in Frankfurt’s successful inaugural Champions League run, and he also contributed to their Europa League title in 2021/22. This is a testament to the massive demand that can be expected for Ndicka if Frankfurt do not manage to secure an extension.

Ndicka’s Bundesliga colleague Moukoko, has arguably made an even bigger name for himself despite being only 18. 

Moukoko became the youngest ever Bundesliga player with a debut just one day after his 16th birthday. Since then, he has replaced Haaland as Dortmund’s go-to striker and was the youngest player at the 2022 World Cup. Although he is reportedly negotiating an extension with Dortmund, the Germans must not flinch as Moukoko would be a scoop for almost any team.

The other four young potential bargains have less first team experience than Ndicka and Moukoko, but if they can be snatched up as free agents, several clubs would be expected to show interest. 

For example, Jan Paul van Hecke has yet to break into the lineup of a successful Brighton side. However, just last season, he was a rock in defence for Blackburn Rovers and helped secure them their highest placement since the Rovers’ promotion to the Championship. So the young Dutchman is one to watch if Brighton deem his contributions superfluous.

A similar argument can be made for Arsenal’s Reiss Nelson. The young winger from Arsenal's academy has been plagued by injuries this season, preventing him from receiving much playing time.

However, in his just 64 minutes of Premier League action this season, Nelson displayed his outstanding potential by scoring a brace against Nottingham Forest. Like van Hecke, Nelson must be on the wish list of many mid-sized teams if Arsenal decide not to extend his contract.

Conclusion: There are valuable prospects for both affluent clubs and those looking for a bargain

The transfer window is always a hotly-anticipated time for football clubs and fans, because teams seek to bolster their ranks with the best young talents. 

As demonstrated, the Off The Pitch Player Valuation Tool can be utilised to identify which of these talents are the most valuable at the moment. However, even for major teams, the cream of the crop may be unaffordable. Luckily, several other prospects have upcoming contract expirations, making them free agents to scoop up this summer.

Youth team transfer analysis: Major clubs reap profits but only a select few make smart deals

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Youth team transfer analysis: Major clubs reap profits but only a select few make smart deals

Brewster

Alamy | Ki-Jana Hoever and Rhian Brewster at Liverpool FC

With the increasing attention on academies in football, young prospects can secure vast profits for clubs to a greater extent than ever before.

This analysis examines transfers from 26 major clubs’ youth/reserve teams to identify who makes the smartest deals.

Why it matters: The value of selling proven talent has increased immensely over the last 10 years, so clubs have invested huge amounts in developing their academies.

The perspective: Transfer revenue is a cornerstone metric in most clubs’ financials. However, a large profit in the short-term can turn out to be a source of regret for a club if those players’ valuations multiply quickly at their new clubs.

3 January 2023 - 1:30 PM

Talent in football is being spotted and lured by top clubs at younger ages than ever before. Youth team competitions such as the Premier League 2 and the UEFA Youth League have commercialised under-21 squads, allowing everyone to watch the big prospects in-game. 

However, not all players make the cut from the reserve team or youth level to the first team at these major clubs. Instead, promising but not yet exceptional talent is being sold to other, smaller clubs.

In this analysis, we examine player sales from the youth/reserve teams of 26 major European football clubs over the past six seasons. The analysis disregards free transfers as well as loans and only examines transfers that include a fee. Also, as some teams merge youth and reserve teams, no players over 23 are included.

In total, there have been 183 player sales since the 2017/18 season for a total transfer sum of an astounding €529 million. But which teams are the main exporters of these young players? And who makes the smartest sales?

The figure demonstrates that Juventus Next Gen are far ahead of the pack with 20 sales over the six seasons.

Overall, there are wide discrepancies in absolute sales with a few clubs having the most departures. In fact, the top-five sellers – Juventus Next Gen, Chelsea U21, Bayern Munich B, Manchester City U21 and FC Barcelona Atletic – account for 42.7 per cent of all sales. 

This means that the youth teams of big clubs are selling more talent before the players have a chance to make a debut at the first team than are typical talent factories such as the Portuguese and Dutch top teams. In fact, reserve sides for Benfica, Sporting and Porto collectively only account for the same number of player sales as Bayern Munich B (15 sales).

Smart Italian sellers outdone by Liverpool U21

However, sale volumes do not capture the full picture at all. Instead, transfer fees and current market values have to be considered in order to assess which clubs are profiting on these sales.

The total value change indicates how much players’ values have increased (+) or decreased (-) since the club sold them. These changes are calculated from the players’ current expected transfer value, according to the Off The Pitch Player Valuation Tool.

There is an Italian dominance among the smartest sellers with Juventus Next Gen, Inter Milan Primavera and Napoli Primavera all entering the top four. 

Juventus Next Gen - who also had the most absolute sales - have reaped €60.7 million in transfer income over the past six seasons. At their new clubs, these players now only have estimated transfer fee values of a collective €37.4 million (a €23.3 million decrease). 

Despite having made far fewer transfers, Liverpool U21 still top Juventus Next Gen. Liverpool’s youth side have sold players for a total of €51.2 million. At this point, these same players have collectively lost almost half that value since their sales, according to their expected transfer values.

A prominent example of this from Liverpool U21 is the Rhian Brewster departure to Sheffield United for a reported €26 million in 2021. Two years later, Brewster is only estimated to be worth a fraction of that with a €5 million valuation. 

However, this example is far from an anomaly as Ki-Jana Hoever, Rafael Camacho, and Herbie Kane have also lost millions in value after their departures from Liverpool U21.

Premier League giants and a talent factory with regrettable deals

The 183 player sales for €529 million now have an estimated total valuation of €825 million. This implies that although the clubs reap profits on these sales, many of them actually lose out in the long run. 

In fact, out of the 26 teams analysed, 18 have sold players that are now collectively worth more. 

At the very top of this agonising table of premature sellers, three Premier League giants are to be found: Arsenal U21, Manchester City U21 and Chelsea U21. 

Manchester City U21 is an interesting case, because they are the youth side with the highest transfer income at a whopping €93.1 million over the six seasons. However, 15 talents sold have increased their value by €67.7 million as we estimate their collective valuation at over $160 million today.

There are two departures in particular which could leave City with regrets: Jeremie Frimpong and Romeo Lavia. 

Frimpong was sold for a mere €380,000 to Celtic in 2018. Four years later, the player excelled at Bayer Leverkusen with an estimated €30 million price tag. So far, the trajectory has been similar for 18-year-old Lavia, who was sold to Southampton this summer for a reported €12.3 million. This season, he has had a lot of playing time for the Saints which has seen his valuation rocket to €31.6 million.

Perhaps rather more surprisingly, Ajax U21 are also among the list of youth teams selling talents at too early a stage. Out of their seven sales, six players have increased in value at their new clubs. This suggests that even talents unable to break through at Ajax are skilful enough to prove their worth elsewhere.

The most dramatic case is that of Sven Botman who was sold for an impressive €8 million by Ajax U21 before his first team debut. Having proved his incredible defending capabilities first at Lille, the 22-year-old is now valued at almost €43 million as a safe starter for a soaring Newcastle side.

Conclusion: Even profit on player sales can become agonising

Overall, sales from big clubs’ youth/reserve sides show that it can be a smart business with sizeable profits. Juventus Next Gen stand out with their sales of many prospects for way more than the current values of those players. 

However, reaping large profits on player sales at an early stage is not that simple.

Examples gleaned from Manchester City U21 and Ajax U21 demonstrate that even when the fees are high, direct youth team sales can end up causing agonising regret if those players quickly excel and surge in value at a different club.

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