Premier League Financial Forecast 2022

5 September 2022 - 6:30 AM

Premier League Financial Forecast 2022: Manchester United eclipsed by Liverpool for the first time in Premier League history

  • For the first time in Premier League history, Liverpool are set to have higher revenues than Manchester United.
  • Last season was also the first year fully back from the pandemic, which is forecast to result in a record-breaking total Premier-League turnover of £5.4 billion.
  • Download the full report forecasting key financials for every single club below.
  • Why it matters: While fans, sponsors, players, and other stakeholders have to wait almost a year before the financial reports are released, our forecast sheds light on the financial state of the 20 clubs shortly after the closing of the accounting period.
  • The perspective: Our report gives insight into a lot of important questions: Who could fall into financial fair play problems? Who has seen the biggest wage bill increase? Why were Leicester absent in the transfer window? And much more.

After two Covid-impacted seasons, Premier League clubs are set to report record-breaking collective turnover for the 2021/22 campaign, according to Off The Pitch’s Premier League Financial Forecast 2022.

Total turnover is predicted to reach a new record high of £5.4 billion in 2021/22, up by almost £250 million compared to latest pre-Covid figure in 2018/19, which was the previous all-time high.

The report also reveals that for the first time in Premier-League history, Liverpool have not only overtaken Manchester United on the pitch but the Merseyside club are now bigger in turnover terms too. This also means that Manchester United for the first time are only number three for Premier-League revenues.

While fans, sponsors, players, and other stakeholders have to wait almost a year before the financial reports are released, our forecast sheds light on the financial state of the 20 clubs shortly after the close of the accounting period.

Mads Meisner Christensen, co-founder and CEO Off The Pitch, said:

“Our report gives insight into a lot of important questions: Who could fall into financial fair play problems? Who have seen the biggest wage bill increase? Why was Leicester absent in the transfer window? And much more.

“We hope that by doing this report we can contribute to a bit more transparency in football.”

Revenue analysis

As mentioned, total turnover is projected to reach £5.4 billion. At club level, we estimate Brentford and Liverpool will record the largest rises in turnover of £130 million and £115 million, respectively. 

Overall, the main driver of the significant revenue increase is a projected boost in matchday income of almost £700 million, after virtually nothing in 2020/21 due to the pandemic. Apart from Brentford, Tottenham also finally got to fully reap the benefits of their new stadium during a season, following its inauguration back in the spring of 2019.

We project Tottenham’s matchday income to reach around £106 million, only topped by Manchester United who are estimated to record proceeds of £110 million.

Furthermore, commercial income is also projected to rise from £1.46 billion to £1.63 billion in 2021/22, equivalent to a rise of 11 per cent, mainly due to football once again becoming more attractive to sponsors and advertisers in stadiums. The boom in crypto-related sponsorships during the last season is a testament to that.

Despite the significant turnover spike, Premier-League clubs’ most important revenue stream, broadcast income, is set to decline by more than £300 million in 2021/22. 

The primary reason for this is the imbalanced distribution of proceeds over the two-year period prior, due to the prolonging of the 2019/20 season, which inflated last year’s figure.

Liverpool are set to take home the largest chunk by some distance, reaching the final of all cup competitions and finishing second in the Premier League. 

United’s revenue edged out by Liverpool for the first time

Although Liverpool have seemed miles ahead of Manchester United for the past five years, it is only now that the Merseyside club are set to leapfrog Manchester United in terms of revenue generation.

Despite a near ten-year drought in terms of substantial domestic and international success (not counting the Europe League win in 2017), Manchester United have seemed unfazed and have been the financial powerhouse of the Premier League since its inauguration 30 years ago. 

However, since peaking in 2018/19 with a turnover of £627 million, Manchester United have been challenged by the sporting success of Man City and Liverpool, whilst underperforming during the pandemic. 

Off The Pitch project Liverpool to record a turnover of £602 million in 2021/22, approximately £20 million higher than Manchester United’s total of £582 million. That is a first in Premier-League history. 

Diversified and least performance dependent 

Tottenham have for some time been one of the clubs others look to in terms of financial sustainability in the world of football. That is also evident when looking at the distribution of the club’s revenue pillars, with the club being not only the least reliant on broadcasting income in the league, but also the fourth largest when measuring turnover excluding TV money. 

According to Off The Pitch’s projections for the 2021/22 season, Tottenham’s £175 million revenue inferiority to Liverpool is just £60 million when excluding broadcasting proceeds, which is a testament to the solid foundations of the London club. 

With the prospect of playing Champions League again this season, Spurs are set to reduce the gap between them and Liverpool and the Manchester clubs significantly next year if they keep performing domestically as well.