Will squad market value shine through at the UEFA Women’s Euro 2025?

With UEFA Women’s Euro 2025 now underway, anticipation is high across Europe as the continent’s top women’s national teams begin their quest for glory. One of the key storylines is whether reigning champions England can defend their title — or if a new contender will rise to the occasion this summer.

Bookmakers’ favourite to win is Spain, having lifted the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup, with England, France and Germany all at short odds to win the European Championship.

But with the odds determined based on recent performances, University Campus of Football Business’s (UCFB) Football Finance experts, Claire O’Neill and Christopher Winn, have mapped out their predicted path to victory, instead based on squad market value. 

By calculating the market value of each competing team, through collation of individual values on a player-by-player basis using Soccerdonna.de (part of the Transfermarkt platform), analysis of predicted success through this mechanism offers alternative possible outcomes, contrary to some bookmaker predictions.

Overall, approximately £57m of playing talent is on show at this summer’s competition across the 16 national teams, providing an average player market value in excess of £150,000.

The five highest value squads, Spain, England, Germany, Norway and France, contribute approximately 62 per cent of the total value of squads competing. Arguably overlooked somewhat by the bookmakers, could the c.£4.4m of Norwegian talent carry them to a place in the latter stages of the competition? 

Analysing the top contenders, Spain and  England alone carry over a third of total squad value collectively (35 per cent), suggesting that the pooling of talent here means a battle for the title could be on the cards between these nations. In contrast, Wales, competing for the first time in the European Championship, carry the smallest squad market value (c.£0.9m), followed by Belgium (c.£0.9m), and Finland (c.£1m).

Reigning World Cup holders Spain is the only nation to surpass a £10m squad market valuation, possessing the only three players across all competing squads to exceed the £1m valuation mark at the prevailing exchange rate. 

Spain’s Ballon d'Or Féminin 2024 winner Aitana Bonmati leads the way as the highest valued player at the tournament (c.£1.4m), followed by fellow Barcelona and Spain teammates Patri Guijarro (c.£1.1m) and Alexia Putellas (c.£1m). The Spanish trio’s combined market value alone of c.£3.5m exceeds the total squad values of Wales, Belgium and Finland combined. 

In close pursuit of Spain, England possess the second highest squad market value (c.£9.2m), with Alessia Russo (c.£940k) carrying the highest player value amongst the English. Indeed, Russo is the joint fourth highest value player in the tournament, alongside Barcelona’s Caroline Graham (Norway) and Ewa Pajor (Poland). 

Per UEFA’s player classifications, Spain’s defence and midfield positions carry the greatest market value across all the squads (c.£2.6m and £4.2m respectively), while England lead the way in the goalkeeping (£359k) and forwards (c.£3.8m) – meaning the Lionesses are likely to give Spain a run for their money. 

The Spanish influence is also evident at club-level. Looking across the squads, seven of the top ten highest value players set to play this summer represent Barcelona, demonstrating the concentration of world-class talent in the 2024/25 UEFA Women’s Champions League runners-up’s squad.

Tournament prediction: Germany v Spain in the final

Bringing this analysis together, predictions have been made of the outcomes from the group stage through to the finals where market value wins throughout. 

In line with bookmakers’ favourites - Spain, Germany and England are predicted to come out on top as clear group winners. 

Group A victors are less certain and this is most definitely the group to watch. Containing a more even balance of talent value, Norway (c.£4.4m) are predicted to emerge Group A winners, but the runners-up spot is a predicted close call. Based on value alone, hosts Switzerland (c.£1.8m), are predicted to take the second spot in the quarter-finals from this group, but the mix of teams will certainly allow for an underdog to secure a spot in the latter stages of the tournament. 

Sweden is another of the favourites with the bookmakers, with short odds being offered behind Spain, England, France and Germany. However, this overlooks the potential prowess of Norway with high value talent such as Elizabeth Terland (Manchester United, c.£0.6m) and Caroline Graham (Barcelona, c.£0.9m) contributing to the squad. Indeed predictions based on squad value see continued victories for Norway, with them ultimately gaining a spot in the semi-finals against Germany.

Based on squad value alone a Germany v Spain final is the ‘mathematical’ outcome, at the expense of Norway and England in the semi-finals. 

….but pounds equals points is just one angle. England needn’t take off their crown just yet! Ultimately with so many variables at play, in the words of Johan Cruyff, ‘Football is a game of mistakes. Whoever makes the fewest mistakes wins!”

Commenting on the wider implications of the tournament for women’s football, Christopher Winn, Senior Lecturer in Football Finance, states. 

“The ever-increasing number of household names on show this summer is synonymous with both the squad market values derived and the growing commercial profile of the women’s game,” he says and continues.

“Total broadcast rights revenue for UEFA Women’s Euro 2025 is expected to show a c.140% increase from the 2022 edition, which has enabled a €41 million prize pot for participating national associations - more than doubling the €16 million on offer previously. Importantly, this will be the first time the players themselves receive a guaranteed percentage of the prize money available, with 30-40 per cent of amounts awarded allocated accordingly.”

Claire O’Neill, Senior Lecturer in Football Finance added. 

“With nearly a quarter of the talent on show at the Women’s Euro 2025 emanating from a combination of the Women’s Super League (WSL) and WSL 2 (88 players across all squads), and approximately 13 per cent of all talent being drawn from the Big 4 clubs in the WSL (Chelsea, Arsenal, Manchester United and Manchester City), English women’s football has certainly cemented itself on the European stage,” she says and continues. 

“The newly rebranded WSL Football Limited, responsible for the operations of the top two professional divisions of women’s football in England, will no doubt seek to leverage the exposure gained at the competition to further grow the game both nationally and internationally. However, to reiterate Deloitte’s comment in their 2025 Annual Review of Football Finance – continued success will only be derived through ‘sustaining momentum’ beyond the excitement of Euro 2025. This can only be achieved through continued investment and exposure of the game.”