Squad valuation an indicator of performance: Who are the strongest and weakest performers?
Alamy
A strong correlation between a football club’s squad valuation and their sporting performance can be established in the big-five leagues.
We have developed a statistical model showing that the link is further strengthened by accounting for variance between leagues.
Using this model, we have found the main overperforming and underperforming teams in relation to their squad value in the 2022/23 season so far.
Why it matters: As money and football become increasingly intertwined, teams who succeed on low budgets and those failing despite massive budgets make interesting case studies.
The perspective: This analysis exemplifies how data on financials can help provide in-depth analyses and predictions regarding sporting performance through statistical modelling.
3 November 2022 - 1:30 PM
Many studies have found that salaries are a good predictor of sporting success.
However, simply maximising the wage bill is - of course - not in itself a guarantee of on-the-pitch success and it can also give the wrong incentives for management.
But what happens if we look at squad valuation instead as a predictor?
This analysis focus on how strong the correlation is between squad value and success in domestic competition.
Acco
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