Off The Pitch model projects France to win World Cup 2026

The 2026 FIFA World Cup begins next week in Mexico City, where co-hosts Mexico will face South Africa in the opening match. For the first time, the tournament will feature 48 nations, with the combined value of all squads reaching €20.8 billion.

With all squads confirmed, 104 matches scheduled and the knockout bracket predetermined, Off The Pitch has modelled every potential route to the final to assess which nations are most likely to lift the trophy.

The primary input in the model is Off The Pitch’s valuation of each national-team squad, which is used to simulate the tournament 10,000 times.

Using squad value as a predictor may appear straightforward. However, the valuations are generated through Off The Pitch’s proprietary player valuation model, which has been tested extensively by leading clubs and leagues worldwide. The model incorporates performance data, team rankings, on-pitch metrics and a range of other variables. Updated monthly for every player, it provides a robust proxy for player quality entering the tournament.

After each round of matches, the model will be updated to incorporate actual results, generating revised probabilities and an updated forecast for the remainder of the tournament. From 11 June, the latest projections will be available on www.offthepitch.com.

France, England and Spain

Our model projects France to reach a third consecutive World Cup final. Unlike in 2022, however, Les Bleus are forecast to leave MetLife Stadium on 19 July as world champions.

France enter the tournament with the most valuable squad, valued at €1.76 billion, 8.7 per cent higher than England’s. As a result, they are assigned the highest probability of winning the 2026 World Cup at 14.26 per cent.

The leading contenders also highlight Europe’s continued strength at international level. The four highest title probabilities belong to France, England (13.02 per cent), Spain (12.08 per cent) and Germany (7.73 per cent), underlining the continent’s dominance among the tournament favourites.

While the gap between the top three nations is relatively narrow, England benefit from a slightly more favourable route through the knockout stages. 

Germany’s outlook is different. Although they are expected to navigate the group stage without major difficulty, the tournament bracket makes a Round of 16 meeting with France the most likely scenario.

That potential early clash weighs heavily on Germany’s overall prospects. Despite ranking fourth among all nations in title probability, the model suggests they are more likely than the other leading contenders to exit the tournament before reaching the quarter-finals.

Defending champions and European challengers

Reigning European champions Spain rank third in our simulations with a 12.08 per cent probability of winning the tournament. Their squad carries a combined value of €1.53 billion and includes the most valuable player at the World Cup, Lamine Yamal, who is valued at €243 million.

Spain’s position among the leading contenders reflects the strength of a squad that defeated both England and France on the way to winning UEFA Euro 2024. Only those two nations rank higher in our title projections.

Portugal rank fifth in the model with a 7.49 per cent probability of winning their first World Cup. Their squad is valued at €1.16 billion, with Paris Saint-Germain midfielders João Neves and Vitinha accounting for a combined €250 million.

Defending champions Argentina are assigned a 5.67 per cent chance of retaining the trophy. While their squad value of €920 million ranks only eighth among the 48 participating nations, the model benefits them with a comparatively favourable route through the knockout stages. 

As a result, Argentina are projected to reach the quarter-finals more frequently than several higher-valued rivals.

Who are the dark horses?

Despite ranking ninth in overall title probability, Belgium have the highest likelihood of winning their group, topping Group G in 76.47 per cent of simulations. The group has a combined squad value of €930 million, of which Belgium account for €698 million.

That valuation gap gives Belgium a clear advantage in the group stage and improves their chances of securing a favourable route through the knockout rounds. Overall, the model assigns Belgium a 4.36 per cent probability of winning the tournament.

Norway, meanwhile, rank 10th among the favourites despite boasting a higher squad value of €718 million. Returning to the World Cup for the first time since 1998, they are assigned a 3.05 per cent chance of lifting the trophy.

Among the African nations, Ivory Coast emerge as the strongest contender in the simulations with a 2.14 per cent probability of winning the World Cup. Senegal follow at 2.01 per cent, while Morocco are assigned a 1.87 per cent chance.

Ivory Coast’s prospects are supported by a growing group of high-value players, including Yan Diomandé, Amad Diallo and Bazoumana Touré, reflecting the increasing market strength of the nation’s talent pool.

Hosts to outperform

Host nations have historically outperformed expectations at World Cups, although the three co-hosts rank outside the leading contenders in the valuation model.

The United States are assigned the highest title probability among the hosts, winning 2.19 per cent of simulations with a squad valued at €450.4 million. Canada lift the trophy in just 0.54 per cent of simulated tournaments.

Mexico benefit from what the model identifies as the least valuable group in the competition. Group A has a combined squad value of €682.5 million, giving Mexico an 86.8 per cent probability of reaching the knockout stage and a 42.91 per cent chance of finishing top of the group.

The favourable draw strengthens Mexico’s prospects of progressing beyond the group phase. Having reached the quarter-finals when hosting the tournament in both 1970 and 1986, the model assigns them a 13.1 per cent probability of repeating that achievement in 2026. Their chances of winning the World Cup, however, remain limited at 0.35 per cent.

The path for smaller nations

The simulations also produce several notable outcomes among the lower-valued nations in the tournament.

Curaçao, the smallest nation ever to qualify for a World Cup, enter the competition with a squad valued at just €36.5 million. Despite their limited resources, they reach the final once across the 10,000 simulations, although they never go on to lift the trophy.

At the other end of the spectrum, Iraq face the most challenging group from a valuation perspective. Group I includes France (€1.75 billion), Senegal (€559 million) and Norway (€718 million), leaving Iraq’s €28 million squad with only a 4 per cent probability of advancing to the knockout stage.

The most remarkable title-winning scenario belongs to Cape Verde. With a squad valued at €65.9 million, they are the lowest-valued nation to win the World Cup in any of the simulations, lifting the trophy on a single occasion. That unlikely success is largely driven by Villarreal CF centre-back Logan Costa, who accounts for almost one-third of the squad’s total value at €20.3 million.