Luton Town

25 August 2023 - 11:38 AM

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IMAGO | Luton Town players ahead of the Premier League match between Brighton and Hove Albion and Luton Town

If you don’t spend, you won’t stay: Transfer spending dictates the fate of newly promoted Premier League teams

  • In recent years, newly promoted Premier League teams have made substantial investments to strengthen their squads in preparation for top-flight football.
  • Our analysis uncovers a clear pattern. Promoted teams that spend heavily remain in the Premier League, while those with lower transfer spending face immediate relegation.
  • Why it matters: The expectation for promoted teams to spend heavily to compete in the Premier League carries significant financial risks, including potentially burdensome wage costs if they are quickly relegated.
  • The perspective: This analysis underscores a trend that, while potentially longstanding, is now increasingly prominent. Financial strength is crucial for success, a trend likely to intensify, further widening the gap between the haves and the have-nots.

During the 2022/23 Premier League season, an unusual feat occurred. For only the fourth time in the league's history, all three newly promoted teams managed to avoid immediate relegation. 

In an era characterized by ever-increasing competition and sky-high financial resources across the entire league, this accomplishment is nothing short of remarkable. However, a closer look reveals that it may not have been mere coincidence.

Prior to the start of the 2022/23 season,

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