Analysis: The impact of a head coach change - some leagues benefit more than others
IMAGO | Both former Manchester United manager Erik ten Hag and former West Ham manager Julen Lopetegui have been sacked this season.
Clubs often turn to a managerial switch in times of crisis - but does it actually work? Our analysis of head coach changes across Europe’s top five leagues over 11 seasons uncovers clear trends in performance after a change.
Some leagues benefit more than others. Bundesliga clubs tend to see the biggest improvements after a coaching change, while La Liga teams struggle more to turn things around. Premier League clubs, meanwhile, experience the highest rate of negative output.
Why it matters: A head coach impacts player performance, team success, and financial sustainability. Choosing the right moment to make a change - or knowing when to hold steady - can be the difference between relegation and European qualification.
The perspective: Sacking a head coach is often seen as desperate, but our analysis shows it can be a strategic tool. Appointing the right successor at the right time can significantly boost a club’s sporting and financial prospects.
28 February 2025 - 8:34 AM
The pressure on clubs to replace or eventually fire a head coach is a constant threat in the life of a manager.
An analysis from Off The Pitch studying all head coach changes (HCC) in 11 seasons from 2013 to 2024 in the Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A, La Liga, and Ligue 1 concludes that 69.3 per cent of the clubs, which changed their head coach in an ongoing season, had a positive sporting output after the change in terms of growth in sc
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