World Cup 2026 Prediction

We have simulated every match and every stage of the tournament 10,000 times using the valuation of each nation's selected squad and the tournament's predetermined bracket. This is the most likely scenario after the Semi-finals.

Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Semi-finals
Quarter-finals
Round of 16
Round of 32
Winner
Spain
S. Africa 0
Canada 1
Germany 4
Paraguay 5
Netherlands 3
Morocco 4
Brazil 2
Japan 1
France 3
Sweden 0
Ivory Coast 1
Norway 2
Mexico 2
Ecuador 0
England 2
DR Congo 1
USA 2
Bosnia & H. 0
Belgium 3
Senegal 2
Portugal 2
Croatia 1
Spain 3
Austria 0
Switzerland 2
Algeria 0
Argentina 3
Cape Verde 2
Colombia 1
Ghana 0
Australia 3
Egypt 5
Paraguay 0
France 1
Canada 0
Morocco 3
Brazil 1
Norway 2
Mexico 2
England 3
Portugal 0
Spain 1
USA 1
Belgium 4
Argentina 3
Egypt 2
Switzerland 4
Colombia 3
France 2
Morocco 0
Spain 2
Belgium 1
Norway 1
England 2
Argentina 3
Switzerland 1
France 0
Spain 2
England 1
Argentina 2
Spain 60%
Argentina 40%
Third Place Match
France 52%
England 48%
Live Prediction
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After each round of matches, the model will be updated to incorporate actual results, generating revised probabilities and an updated forecast for the remainder of the tournament.