World Cup 2026 Prediction

We have simulated every match and every stage of the tournament 10,000 times using the valuation of each nation's selected squad and the tournament's predetermined bracket. This is the most likely scenario after the Round of 32.

Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Semi-finals
Quarter-finals
Round of 16
Round of 32
Winner
France
S. Africa 0
Canada 1
Germany 4
Paraguay 5
Netherlands 3
Morocco 4
Brazil 2
Japan 1
France 3
Sweden 0
Ivory Coast 1
Norway 2
Mexico 2
Ecuador 0
England 2
DR Congo 1
USA 2
Bosnia & H. 0
Belgium 3
Senegal 2
Portugal 2
Croatia 1
Spain 3
Austria 0
Switzerland 2
Algeria 0
Argentina 3
Cape Verde 2
Colombia 1
Ghana 0
Australia 3
Egypt 5
Paraguay 12%
France 88%
Canada 35%
Morocco 65%
Brazil 57%
Norway 43%
Mexico 17%
England 83%
Portugal 44%
Spain 56%
USA 43%
Belgium 57%
Argentina 82%
Egypt 18%
Switzerland 51%
Colombia 49%
France 72%
Morocco 28%
Spain 66%
Belgium 34%
Brazil 41%
England 59%
Argentina 68%
Switzerland 32%
France 53%
Spain 47%
England 62%
Argentina 38%
France 52%
England 48%
Third Place Match
Spain 60%
Argentina 40%
Live Prediction
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After each round of matches, the model will be updated to incorporate actual results, generating revised probabilities and an updated forecast for the remainder of the tournament.