World Cup 2026 Prediction

We have simulated every match and every stage of the tournament 10,000 times using the valuation of each nation's selected squad and the tournament's predetermined bracket. This is the most likely scenario after Round 2 has finished.

Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Semi-finals
Quarter-finals
Round of 16
Round of 32
Winner
France
S. Korea 34%
Switzerland 66%
Germany 84%
Paraguay 16%
Netherlands 62%
Morocco 38%
Brazil 73%
Japan 27%
France 74%
Sweden 26%
Ivory Coast 47%
Norway 53%
Mexico 53%
Scotland 47%
England 87%
DR Congo 13%
USA 71%
Bosnia & H. 29%
Egypt 25%
Senegal 75%
Colombia 55%
Ghana 45%
Spain 79%
Austria 21%
Canada 47%
Algeria 53%
Argentina 91%
Cape Verde 9%
Portugal 69%
Croatia 31%
Australia 14%
Belgium 86%
Germany 42%
France 58%
Switzerland 30%
Netherlands 70%
Brazil 57%
Norway 43%
Mexico 17%
England 83%
Colombia 22%
Spain 78%
USA 48%
Senegal 52%
Argentina 56%
Belgium 44%
Algeria 25%
Portugal 75%
France 61%
Netherlands 39%
Spain 70%
Senegal 30%
Brazil 41%
England 59%
Argentina 45%
Portugal 55%
France 53%
Spain 47%
England 57%
Portugal 43%
France 52%
England 48%
Third Place Match
Spain 56%
Portugal 44%
Live Prediction
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After each round of matches, the model will be updated to incorporate actual results, generating revised probabilities and an updated forecast for the remainder of the tournament.