World Cup 2026 Prediction

We have simulated every match and every stage of the tournament 10,000 times using the valuation of each nation's selected squad and the tournament's predetermined bracket. This is the most likely scenario.

Round of 32

Round of 16

Quarter-finals

Semi-finals

Final

Semi-finals

Quarter-finals

Round of 16

Round of 32

Czech Rep. 47%

Canada 53%

Germany 84%

Paraguay 16%

Netherlands 62%

Morocco 38%

Brazil 64%

Sweden 36%

France 81%

Japan 19%

Ivory Coast 47%

Norway 53%

Mexico 38%

Ecuador 62%

England 71%

Senegal 29%

USA 71%

Bosnia & H. 29%

Belgium 77%

S. Korea 23%

Colombia 46%

Croatia 54%

Spain 79%

Austria 21%

Switzerland 53%

Algeria 47%

Argentina 65%

Uruguay 35%

Portugal 77%

Ghana 23%

Turkey 75%

Egypt 25%

Germany 42%

France 58%

Canada 25%

Netherlands 75%

Brazil 57%

Norway 43%

Ecuador 25%

England 75%

Croatia 26%

Spain 74%

USA 43%

Belgium 57%

Argentina 60%

Turkey 40%

Switzerland 28%

Portugal 72%

France 61%

Netherlands 39%

Spain 66%

Belgium 34%

Brazil 41%

England 59%

Argentina 45%

Portugal 55%

France 53%

Spain 47%

England 57%

Portugal 43%

France 52%

England 48%

Third Place Match

Spain 56%

Portugal 44%

After the first full round of matches (18 June), the model will be updated to incorporate actual results, generating revised probabilities and an updated forecast for the remainder of the tournament.