"We don’t say it’s a business plan, it’s a football programme,” Ajax CEO Edwin van der Sar told The Guardian in September, speaking about the club’s phenomenally successful academy. “We want our success with the players we educate. And if in two, three years we win trophies with them and they get a higher level, the interest of other clubs should be there. And those clubs should be bigger. After two to three years, it’s time to move on.”

In the past six seasons, almost no club has done this better than Ajax. They’ve generated €342 million in reported transfer income from the sale of players who passed through their academy; nearly 50 per cent more than the next-best club, and only €50 million shy of the top-ranked club Benfica (who can thank João Félix for a third of their income). The club has been able to increase its overall revenue by 42 per cent just through the sale of academy products.

It may not be called a business plan, but it’s a plan most businesses would be more than happy to replicate.

Clubs revisiting their spendings

Ajax are rightly heralded as world-leaders in talent development. No one inside the club would doubt the value that their academy delivers; an ECA report from 2012 revealed that the club spent €6 million per year on their youth setup, meaning that even accounting for a potential rise in costs since then, the club has developed a hugely profitable operation.

Most football clubs, however, cannot tell the same story as Ajax. Club CEOs often grapple with quantifying the return on investment in their academy. This is especially true in England, where clubs graded Category One in the Elite Player Performance Plan can expect to spend around £3 million per year on their academy, with some of the biggest clubs often spending several times more.

With the coronavirus pandemic putting a squeeze on top-line revenue, it is understandable that clubs are considering revisiting their spending in areas where the benefit can be hard to see. Just this week, Birmingham City announced that they “will be looking at remodelling the Academy system and exploring a “B and C Team” model” despite having recently sold Jude Bellingham for a significant fee to Borussia Dortmund.

Debuts do not mean much in of themselves

Then take the Blues’ rivals Aston Villa, who since 2015 have recorded €14 million in sales of its academy products, or a little over €2 million a year. That places them 25th in English during this period, below clubs like Huddersfield Town, Fulham, and Swansea City. A superficial view of return on investment would suggest that Villa’s academy simply isn’t productive.

In the absence of meaningful transfer income to assess academy ‘productivity’, the go-to statistics for academy managers are first team debuts and minutes. But this is not a conversation that can be easily grounded in objectivity; debuts do not mean much in of themselves, and playing time needs to be understood through the prism of performance and contribution to the team.

This is of course particularly relevant for Aston Villa, with Jack Grealish being a product of the Bodymoor Heath academy. Grealish was pivotal in the club’s Premier League survival last season, and his continued form this season has even invited comparisons with Paul Gascoigne. Aston Villa may not have sold Jack Grealish - despite numerous suitors - but that doesn’t mean that their academy hasn’t delivered a return on investment.

A healthy financial return

Analytical models can begin to quantify this ‘unrealised’ value in a player. Specifically, we can ask: how much would it cost Aston Villa to acquire a player that delivers the same level of performance as Grealish, and how much more (or less) than this hypothetical player does Grealish cost?

Our player model - which evaluates the performance and value of over 100,000 players globally - suggests that a like-for-like replacement for Grealish today would likely cost Villa in the region of a £40 million transfer fee, and a further £4.5 million per year in wages. After amortising the fee over four years (a typical contract length), we’d expect Grealish’s replacement to cost £14.5 million a year, substantially more than Grealish’s reported £7 million salary.

Though Aston Villa have not sold Grealish, it is likely that they’re getting a healthy financial return on their academy in the 2020/21 season, after accounting for the ongoing operating costs of the academy this year.

We’ve performed this analysis for all Premier League clubs in the 2019/20 season, and combined it with transfer fees received to get a holistic view on academy return on investment. Unsurprisingly, it is the biggest clubs in the country that record the biggest estimated ‘savings’ from their academy; it costs a club like Manchester United a significant amount of money to acquire a first team player, so a starter who comes from the academy with typically much lower wages and without a transfer fee is going to represent a significant cost saving.

We estimate that Manchester United’s player costs last season would have been nearly £60 million higher were it not for their academy, such were the performance levels and costs of Marcus Rashford, Scott McTominay, and Mason Greenwood in particular.

Leicester and Tottenham are different examples

Adjusting for overall cost bases, both Tottenham Hotspur and Leicester City rank well too, though in different ways. Harry Kane accounts for roughly 75 per cent of Spurs’ £44 million in savings last season; we estimate that a player of his level would cost the club over £100 million in transfer fees and £14 million a year in wages. One year of Harry Kane performance pays for the academy several years over.

Leicester City meanwhile spread their £20 million in academy savings across four players: Ben Chillwell, Harvey Barnes, Hamza Choudhury, and Luke Thomas. In 2020/21 their savings will fall with Chillwell’s sale, though clearly this is more than compensated for with the reported £45 million transfer fee - combining these figures allows a club to get a holistic view on their total academy ROI for the year.

Razor-focused on understanding return on investment

Southampton, meanwhile, continued their balance of having academy players contributing significantly in their first team - most notably James Ward-Prowse - while also generating revenue from player sales. The club will always attract headlines for the fees it has and will receive for its homegrown talent, but it would be remiss to overlook the huge value those players have added to the club on the field over the years.

For the next few years at least, clubs will be razor-focused on understanding return on investment, and even before Covid no area of a club caused more debate about ROI than its academy. Our collective obsession with transfer fees means we will always tend to be drawn into narratives about academy productivity from a pure, tangible monetary perspective.

But as we know, players aren’t simply assets to be traded, and some of the most important academy players may never sell for a fee. The smartest clubs are therefore finding ways to quantify this, and as a result will be able to realise even greater benefits from their youth setup.

It’s not exactly shattering news that what separates the great footballers, the professionals, from the Sunday League-players is mental strength.

In football, and in basically all sport, it is common knowledge that on various Sunday League-teams around the world you can find players with technique and physical abilities of a very high level, but the mental aspect of their game is not ready for a professional career.

Dr. Morgan David is well aware of this but still believes he has something to offer to the world of football.

According to him, clubs tend to forget – or ignore – this knowledge when they select players for their academies. Or at least they don’t do things as thoroughly as they should be done, according to the former academic from Exeter and Antwerp University.

This knowledge could be used in clubs

“I believe that clubs are fully aware that their players need the right mentality to make it through the system and to play and succeed at the very top. But when recruiting players, it could be when they are 14 years old, they would gain so much if they actually took a closer look at the players’ psychological abilities. Because those results are much more reliable for their future careers than their abilities to run, dribble, shoot and sprint,” he says.

Four years ago, David, a behavioural science expert, founded his own company, where he took all his academic knowledge about behavioural science and developed some tools for businesses to use to learn more about consumer psychology.

But one day he was contacted by Delphine Herblin, a clinical psychologist working with professional players from various French clubs. She was very interested in the findings from the academic world because she believed that this knowledge could be used in clubs.

And together, the French woman and the UK-based French scientist, working with his own private business, developed a tool they thought could revolutionise the way clubs identified talents for their academies.

Almost frightening reading in clubs

“To me this knowledge, though very recent, was not new. But sometimes people in the academic world know about studies and the impact they could have, many years before it is known to the public. I had used this knowledge in my own company but found out that these studies could be useful for clubs, because they spend so much money on their academies,” he says.

Right now, Predicta Football has only just started, and David runs his original business in parallel, but he is convinced that it has something important to offer clubs.

"Actually the studies are very clear in this area and it could be almost frightening reading for the clubs, because often those players who mature early physically don’t score particularly well in the psychological tests, nor do they show higher-than-average physical skills as adults.

"But they tend to be offered contracts and they are being well taken care of because their technique and physical abilities are superior to other players of the same age. The interesting thing is that players maturing at a young age actually show worse physical or psychological skills at adulthood."

David wouldn’t go as far as to say that clubs tend to pick the wrong players when they select them for their academies, but he believes they could do a better job.

"Our tool cannot stand alone. It was developed in order to support the other methods and criteria that clubs are already using. But clubs need to be aware that we can measure the psychological abilities at a very young age.

"The picture is very clear; those who score high on this when they are 12 years old tend to be successful when they are grown-ups and professional players. And this is research from the world of sports. So you can actually predict who has the mental ability to succeed in the long run," he says.

Hopefully do it before others

But it is well-known that the brain of a teenager is by no means fully-developed, so how can you make such predictions at this early stage in their career?

“You are absolutely right. The brain and their mental ability will develop a lot in their late teens. But still the picture is very clear. Those who score low when they are 14 years old would also score low, compared to others, when they are in their early twenties.”

What we look at is how they react when they lose. They shouldn’t do too well. So we try to see how affected they are when losing

The scientific foundation behind the tool is many years of research in applied behavioural science. And based on these scientific results, David has built a science-based identification tool for predictive recruitment in football.

What Predicta Football does is make assessments of players’ cognitive and psychological resources.

“Because our tool is based on so much research we know that clubs can reduce uncertainty in their recruitment decisions and identify tomorrow’s talents with scientific accuracy. And hopefully do it before others.”

Predicta Football uses questionnaires and cognitive games which are put to the players in groups of up to 30. These tests can be done in less than an hour.

“We are not saying that our tool can replace everything clubs are doing today. Not at all. This tool cannot stand alone. But we utterly believe that clubs need to dig much deeper into this area and understand that the mental performance of players can be improved vastly. And that the psychological profile shown in tests when players are young tends to tell a future story about these talents.”

How affected are they when losing

Predicta Football tests players in several dimensions. One of them is the so-called PFC-dimension, which will tell a story about the person’s ability when it comes to planning, flexibility and creativity.

“This is important because it would tell the coaches and the other staff at the academies whether the player is creative on the pitch. Will he make the best decisions in those very few seconds available in a match? Is he always going for a pass to the centre-forward or is he flexible and aware that sometimes he needs another pass? It shows their ability to find different options in different situations.”

Another dimension is competitiveness – which is described as the tendency to always lean towards winning games.

“What we look at is how they react when they lose. They shouldn’t do too well. So we try to see how affected they are when losing.”

So you need to be a bad loser?

“Definitely. From a mental point of view you need to handle it, to cope with defeats, because it is going to happen. But you want players who don’t want to experience that too often. If they get too used to losing, if they cope with it well, it is not a good sign. They need to feel so sad and bad. But they need to find a way to deal with disappointment.” says David.

Needs much more attention

He explains that his experience so far, which has primarily been gained from looking at academies in England and France, is that the academies in England are rather focused on the mental part of the game, whereas this is not given the same attention in France.

“I believe it is about culture. In France they are a bit reluctant to adapt to things from the academic world. In England the tradition is different, so you will see many psychologists working for the academies in England. But still we believe this area needs much more attention, and they need to be aware how much they can do in this area,” he says.

Predicta Football is offering clubs one-shot assessments of players; or to follow cohorts of young players over one or several seasons. The company, 100 per cent owned by Morgan, also offers talent development services while working within clubs.

“In these situations, we either sell single potential assessments, or packages, including several consecutive assessments, over one or more seasons.”

He hopes the tool will be widely recognised and used as a reference, so that any player can be compared to others and use the test outcome to convince clubs and agents to hire him/her.

At the moment, Predicta Football is working with one of the biggest players’ agents in France to integrate PREDICTA into a tool which would make players’ assessments and transactions more reliable and efficient.

It took Tom Vernon less than half a minute to explain how Danish Superliga side FC Nordsjaelland (FCN) turn three to five talents into established first-team players year after year.

That ability produced global recognition for Vernon's club, especially when CIES Football Observatory awarded the title of "Youngest Team in Europe" to the Danish team two years in a row - their average player being just 21.36 years old.

That figure stands out against all the teams from the 30 leagues in the survey, but what makes it impressive is the fact that the club manage to compete at the top of the Danish league year after year.

They are one of just four Danish clubs to have secured top-six positions in the league for ten of the last 12 seasons, not to mention being crowned champions a few times too. They have even qualified for European football on several occasions.

Belief

One would suspect that the story behind the club's continued success in developing kids into established first-team players would be a complex one about scouting, culture, governance, training, leadership, and ownership - an intricate, time-consuming story with a myriad of components, each of which needs to fall perfectly into place to create the success we see. And you might not be wrong.

But, according to Vernon, there is one thing that makes all the difference: belief.

At FCN, young players actually believe that they will get their chance. And that's it. That's the secret.

"First of all, we have a high turnover in the first team, which means there is always space in the team. Some of our first-team players are being sold every summer, so we need players to step in and take over. And that helps a lot. Secondly, and obviously this part is absolutely vital, the players whom we want to take over and play in the first team are our own talents," explains Tom Vernon.

That took about 25 seconds to explain, if you're keeping track.

They actually play matches

The young players can be 100 per cent certain that every summer between three and five players from the academy will be promoted to the first team. And not just to the squad either - they are expected to be part of the starting 11 and to make a difference from day one.

"Every player in our academy who is 15 years old knows that within a few years the door will open for them. It is not just something we tell them. It happens. They can see it with their own eyes: their mates from the U/17 team or U/19 team, players they might play against in training once in a while, are being promoted to the first team. And they actually play matches. Many matches. Against the top teams in Denmark.

"These players, who are just a few years older than themselves, they get a proper chance to show what they can do. And when we give them the opportunity to play football at the highest level in Denmark, they tend to show us, themselves, their friends in the academy, and their parents, that they are good enough. They show everyone that they have what it takes."

Are they truly focused when it comes to their daily work to prepare themselves to be first-team players? Or are they being distracted all the time because deep inside they know that they will never play in the first team, and therefore they need to mentally prepare for something else?

And he adds:

"And ask yourself, when this is happening, how does it influence the mindset of these boys, who are only 15 years old? I think they really understand, deep inside, that we need them. That we trust them. And that they will be given the chance to be a professional footballer at our club if they continue to work hard. That understanding is the key - at a pretty young age they believe that their time is coming. So, they have a few years to prepare, they know we are not faking it, and when the time is up, they are ready."

Low ceiling

Tom Vernon recognises that running a successful academy is a combination of many things, of many people's hard work over many years, but to him the big difference between FCN and many other clubs is the hard fact that the FCN players know that they will play. It is just a matter of time.

"Most academies have an extremely low ceiling for the vast majority of their players. Perhaps one or two players get promoted to the first team every year, but even then they are often not given a real chance. They might play a few matches, but if they make mistakes, and young players make mistakes, they are dropped, and thus very seldom do you see homegrown players make it at the top level.

"So, my question is: Where is the belief in the young talents all around Europe? Do these young talents really believe that they will play? Are they truly focused when it comes to their daily work to prepare themselves to be first-team players? Or are they being distracted all the time because deep inside they know that they will never play in the first team, and therefore they need to mentally prepare for something else?"

Some of our readers might say: "Fair enough. FCN can create first-team players ready to compete in Denmark. But they can't necessarily take the FCN model and make it work in the Premier League or LaLiga because the quality of football is so high that a team with so many youngsters wouldn't be able to compete." How would you respond to them?

"Well, I am sure that our standard is higher than any U/23 team in the Premier League. Meaning that, if our first team played any U/23 team from England, we would consistently be the better team. But I agree that obviously it takes a lot to be 18 years old and playing on the first team for Spurs, Liverpool, or Real Madrid. However, I think this is a discussion about the whole structure of academies and whether it is broken or not. I would argue that it is broken. At least in England."

A complicated discussion

All the major clubs in England have huge academies but very, very seldomly do young players make a breakthrough at the club where they were brought up. Vernon thinks that is a big problem.

"I admit that it is a complicated discussion because it depends on what you want in the long run. You need to ask yourself: Why do we have these academies? I think it is obvious that most of the clubs can't defend the amount of money they are spending on their academies. So, in that sense, the system doesn't work, because they don't promote players to their own first team. They loan out players to smaller clubs. And maybe that is okay. I would just develop a different structure, and I think this is also why more and more teams in England are talking about developing a model where they only have an U/23 team and no academy."

What's more, the academic education is also very important to us, so if they don't make it as footballers, we have a strong track-record proving that we can help them get into some of the best universities in the world. Our students from Ghana have collected more than $50 million of scholarships.

According to Vernon, there is a clear movement towards ending the current structure in which the big clubs sign many players to their academies yet very, very few of them ever become part of the first team.

Their careers often go wrong

"There is so much talent accumulated within just a very few top clubs in England. We have seen so many promising talents from Scandinavia go to these top clubs, but they tend to come back after three, four or five years, having failed to make it over there. And their development suffers from this. So, I think the current model results in the loss of many interesting players who could have done a magnificent job at many other clubs, but their careers often go in the wrong direction when they realise that they won't make it in one of the top teams."

You talk of your vision to build academies all over the world. Why would a talented young English player go to a Right To Dream Academy in England instead of signing for, say, Manchester City or Chelsea?

"Well, I don't know yet if we would be able to convince this young player and his parents that he should play for us. But I truly believe that we have something to offer when we can promise these kids that they will be given the best football education they can get. What's more, the academic education is also very important to us, so if they don't make it as footballers, we have a strong track-record proving that we can help them get into some of the best universities in the world. Our students from Ghana have collected more than $50 million of scholarships. Furthermore, we provide them with a five-year deal. We recognise that it takes time, and we don't want to stop working with young talents just because they are going through a tough period. And, finally, they can see that every year we promote many talents to our first team. So, I reckon that we would have a good chance to attract some very talented footballers," explains Vernon.

Messi would be in

At this stage it is impossible to know when and how Right To Dream will drive operations around the globe, but like Tom Vernon said in another interview, they are putting together the last pieces of the puzzle that will make their academy's success replicable all over the world.

One important thing to mention, if you want to understand the Right To Dream culture, is the way talents are scouted and recruited to the academies. According to Vernon, they look for talented footballers, obviously, but that is not the only important thing.

"We screen every kid for his or her potential academic skills - think of it, if you will, as their talent for obtaining knowledge. When it comes to our talent assessment, footballing skill is not the only thing we look at."

So, if the next Leo Messi came to a trial, and you saw his incredible talent, but his academic skills were very poor, you wouldn't take him?

"He would be in. But we also take in kids who are definitely not the biggest footballing talents. They have something else to offer. It could be excellent academic skills or special social skills. We need the right balance at the academy. Every year 25,000 kids go to the trial and only 20 get in. Statistically, it's easier to get into Harvard. And that's because we need to make sure that we have the right dynamic in the group, and we don't believe that the 20 best footballers will necessarily create the environment that we seek to achieve," says Vernon.

They caught the eye of most observers of European football when they were branded by the CIES Football Observatory as the "Youngest Team in Europe" for the second year in a row. FC Nordsjaelland (FCN), the Danish Superliga side located 20 kilometres north of Copenhagen in Farum, fielded the youngest line-up of the 31 European top-division leagues surveyed: the average player being just 21.36 years old.

In Denmark, however, no one was surprised when they saw the ranking. Managers, pundits, and players - they all used to look at FCN with dumbfounded expressions on their faces as the club sold their best players year after year.

It happened every summer: big clubs from Italy, Germany, Holland, and Turkey came in and acquired the Danish club's best talent. One example could be Emre Mor, who was sold to Dortmund for €12 million back in 2016.

But that should not really be a surprise to anyone, because that is how it works in European football - if you are a club good at developing raw talent, then eventually those players will be sold to bigger clubs. Such clubs are the so-called "talent monetisers."

Cherry-picking

However, where FCN stand out from their competitors, both in Denmark and abroad, is in their behaviour after their biggest talents have left. Most other Danish clubs would go out and spend big on established players from other Danish clubs - and often they would go cherry-picking top players from Norway or Sweden too.

But FCN don't do that.

Last summer the top goal scorer in the Danish Superliga, Andreas Skov Olsen, was sold by FCN to Serie A side Bologna in a €6 million deal. But FCN didn't buy a replacement - they calmly relied on their own academy's players to take over from Skov Olsen. And when the media asked their manager, Flemming Pedersen, whether he was frustrated by losing his biggest asset and being left without a proven goal scorer in the squad, there was no moaning. At all.

On the contrary, Flemming Pedersen was one big smile, proud to see the local talent going to Italy and really excited to give new talents the opportunity to show everyone that they're good enough to play at the highest level in Denmark.

If he was concerned, you certainly couldn't see it on his face.

Always manage to compete

Today, almost one year later, Flemming Pedersen is still smiling, perhaps even wider. One of the talents who took over from Skov Olsen, the versatile 19-year-old midfielder Muhammed Kudus, is on the verge of a major transfer - media reports are saying that Everton, Dortmund, Fenerbahçe, Frankfurt, and Lazio all want to sign him. He has scored 11 goals this season. The other leading goal scorer at the club, 19-year-old Mikkel Damsgaard, has already been sold to Serie A outfit Sampdoria for €6.7 million.

A few years ago, pundits consistently predicted that FCN would struggle to stay in the league because they always shipped off their best players and never really bought any replacements.

Those predictions are nowhere to be found these days - because everyone in Danish football knows that when FCN say they trust their own academy players, they are serious, and their league positions are proving them right too. They are one of just four Danish clubs who secured top-six positions in the league for nine of the last 11 seasons. They always manage to compete at the highest level, and they have even qualified for European football a few times.

Tom Vernon is the chairman at FC Nordsjaelland, who were purchased by a non-profit company founded by a group of investors brought together by Vernon. The investors were a group of people who wanted to support the development of young people who could have a career in football - or beyond. There is a no dividend policy among the group, so any profits earned are retained and reinvested into the club for future growth, and no interest is paid on injected capital either. All the investors want is to provide opportunities to young footballers - and get their money back at some point.

They all failed

Vernon and the group acquired almost 98 per cent of the shares in FC Nordsjaelland back in December 2015. According to Danish media reports, around €13.5 million was paid for the ownership of the club.

Prior to buying a club in Denmark, Tom Vernon had already founded a football academy in Ghana, but the Ghanaian academy needed a club that would be their gateway to Europe, and after some years of research, Vernon decided to go for a Danish club as he felt that the talents from Ghana could compete in the Danish Superliga. And the quality of the league would ensure an opportunity for talents to shine and, as a result, Vernon could collect transfer fees that would fund and continuously develop the academies in both Ghana and Denmark.

They can actually build a model where all their players at the academies learn about the world. About values. About themselves. I hear quite often that players today are really confused about this expectation that they should be role models to kids. They ask questions like, 'What does it mean to be a role model?' I think that is a massive problem. So, let's educate our young players while we have the opportunity.

According to Vernon, FCN spend around €6.5 million a year on their academy programme, far more than any of their competitors in Scandinavia. But still Tom Vernon wants to expand his academy model - and his ambitions are global.

"All the clubs I am aware of who have tried to build a chain of football academies have failed. I am not the one to say why they didn't succeed, but we aim to do it. We are on the verge of having our model ready to take the next step and build a number of academies around the world," Vernon tells offthepitch.com.

He explains that FCN are comfortable with the operational model - they know the methods that create great footballers and great students. But the cultural aspect - which is very important - is the last thing they need to look at.

Scholarships of more than $50 million

"We know that our players need to visit the different academies around the world. It gives them so much to go to another country and meet with something completely different than what they are used to. When they have tried that on a number of occasions, then suddenly it is not that hard for a 20-year-old talent to move to Holland and perform in the Eredivisie. But we need to build the right organisation around all this, and we need the right partners - and that is what we are working on at the moment."

As the name of the academy in Ghana suggests, the motivation for Vernon is to give as many children around the world "The Right To Dream."

"Our students from Ghana have collected scholarships of more than $50 million since we started the academy 20 years ago. More than 80 of the 250 students have either graduated from a university in the US or are at this stage studying at some of the best universities in the US.

"Around 50 of the students from Ghana went on and became professional players - most of them in Europe. These numbers are great, but we would like to give the opportunity to many more children around the world. It is as simple as that. All the profits we make will be invested to grow our academies and thereby educate many more children," says Vernon.

He acknowledges that not all clubs have the same objective as FCN and that many other clubs have shareholders who expect to see a yearly return on their investment.

But whether you're in the game to make profits or not, Tom Vernon believes that if you want to build an academy - an academy where you manage to actually turn young prospects into first-team players in some of the best leagues in Europe - you need to look at the players as human beings. Not as footballers. Or assets that you need to develop.

He was changing things

"We believe in the education of the whole person. The purpose-driven athlete is what we try to create and you can't do that if you focus solely on football skills."

Why is it important that they have a purpose beyond football? Aren't they supposed to be great footballers who inspire the fans through their skills on the pitch?

"Many years ago, I met George Weah, the former star striker from Liberia. I was so lucky that I got to know him really well. He was very clear that his voice had the ability to create changes in Africa, perhaps more than anyone else's because of his background as a footballer. And he was changing things. His role in supporting refugees during the war between Sierra Leone and Liberia is an untold story. But his impact was massive.

"He is one of the original purpose-driven athletes of the world. After I had talked to him, I was convinced that was what I wanted to do. I was a football fan, and I love football and I love to win, but I want our players to make a difference in society, because they have the ability to do so through their careers as footballers."

George Weah is currently serving as the 25th president of Liberia.

Tom Vernon speaks about The Last Dance, the Netflix series about Michael Jordan, when explaining why it is so obvious to him that clubs - and players - should do much more than just entertain their fans by playing matches.

"I remember this scene in the series where he was asked: 'So, what did you do off the court?' And you can't stop comparing Jordan to LeBron James because he had been doing so many things to make a difference for people around the world. And I don't know exactly what happened after they made the series with Michael Jordan, but I noticed that recently he did donate $100 million to the Black Lives Matter campaign. I think he found out that he can really make an impact," says Vernon.

His parents did a good job

Vernon was also caught by surprise when Marcus Rashford joined the debate in England about free school meals during the summer in the UK.

"That was brilliant - to see him jump into this debate. And I was so happy to see the difference he made. Why did he do that? Probably because his parents did a great job raising him. But not all players are that fortunate.

"This is where I think clubs have massive potential to make a difference. They can actually build a model where all their players at the academies learn about the world. About values. About themselves. I hear quite often that players today are really confused about this expectation that they should be role models to kids. They ask questions like, 'What does it mean to be a role model?' I think that is a massive problem. So, let's educate our young players while we have the opportunity."

Vernon, who used to be on the terraces when Wycombe Wanderers played in the 1980s, talks about the likes of Paul Gascoigne and Tony Adams as people he could relate to when he was young.

"The guys that I grew up loving, Gascoigne and Adams, these kinds of guys, you felt like you knew them. Maybe mostly because they had a good time and partied too much. But they were just part of society. Then we went through this hyper-individualistic period where players were turned into brands. No one could see them or meet them anymore because they were hidden away behind these big walls, and they were inaccessible and there was much less traction.

"And then there came the inevitable rejection of that, in some ways at least. Do I want to go back to players partying and being part of the community again? I don't think they should drink that much alcohol, but I want my players to engage with the community, like we have seen Juan Mata do. Like Weah did. And Drogba. These kinds of guys inspire me. This is how I can leverage my position to have an impact. I think, as a football fan, that's what I want my footballers to stand for."

Didn't want to use shuttle busses

To Vernon it comes as no surprise that most stars today are too busy flashing their diamond earrings and their big cars on Instagram to find time to worry about making a difference.

They should learn to clean the classroom that they have slept in for four days instead

"I won't say that this is what they learn at the academies, but I think that part of the explanation here is what the young talents learn from a very young age. What they get used to. Every summer we take our kids to a great football youth tournament in Gothenburg, Sweden. The biggest in Europe. We absolutely love it, and the quality of the teams is superb.

"I have asked some clubs from England why they don't attend and they said that they did not go because they, for example, could not have their own busses at the tournament. They didn't want to use the shuttle busses that are at the heart of the logistics when players go from one pitch to another. But I really don't get that.

"Why is it important to have your own air-conditioned bus? They also didn't like the fact that the players were sleeping in classrooms at schools. Come on! Why should under-19 teams stay in five-star hotels? Kids shouldn't be treated like Premier League players. They should learn to clean the classroom that they have slept in for four days instead.

"We have our 13-year-old Danes from FCN in Ghana washing their own clothes when they visit The Right To Dream Academy there. And we have our Ghanaian and Danish players cleaning their locker rooms after they've used them at international tournaments in Japan and the rest of the world. That's how we do it, and we believe that is the right way to educate young people - footballers or not."

With football clubs at all levels suffering during the coronavirus crisis, cash flow and balance sheets have come under unprecedented pressure. Resources have to be prioritised, meaning that funds may have to be reallocated. This could come at the cost of maintaining an effective academy, even if the club has derived great benefits from the development of young talent in the past.

Historically, Valencia CF have reaped the rewards of one of Spain’s most productive academies. Among the most successful graduates include Manchester City’s David Silva, Isco of Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund’s Paco Alcacer.

The latest sought-after talent to emerge from the academy is 20 year-old Ferran Torres, already rated as a € 50 million-plus player and someone who has caught the eye of La Liga and Premier League giants.

Widely acknowledged as Spain’s “fourth club”, the development of home-grown players enables Valencia to be competitive at home and abroad. But how much damage has been done to the academy concept at top level football clubs like Valencia during this troubled year?

“With a diminishing budget for most clubs, there may be a big temptation to shift resources from the academy to focus entirely on the first team or to invest in youths who are close to breaking into the first team,” says Sean Bai, director of the Valencia academy. 

Bai adds that club reactions to the post-lockdown world will, to a great degree, depend on their philosophy and the part that player development plays in their culture.

“Academy investments are likely to pay-off over the long-term, so only clubs with a firm belief in the benefits of a thriving academy will persist with investment in tough times.”

"Player factory"

We asked Valencia for details of their current and future financial commitment to their academy, but information of this nature is confidential. Nevertheless, there is clearly a big appetite for nurturing talent at the club, who had a revenue of £188 million in their latest accounts – an impressive growth compared to the £102 million in turnover in 2017. Valencia also recorded a small profit after tax in 2019 compared to a loss of £27 million in 2017.

But while Valencia have received significant transfer income from the sale of home-grown players, they are not seeking to become a “player factory” for bigger clubs to pick and choose the next outstanding youngster.

“Our focus is on developing players into professionals and hoping they can progress to our first team. That’s why we were ranked the fifth most productive academy among the big five leagues by CIES Football Observatory in 2019,” says Marco Otero, academy technical director.

The current Valencia first team squad has more than half a dozen players who progressed through their system, including José Luis Gayá and Carlos Soler.

Valencia’s investment in their academy include education programmes for the players. Otero says the success of these programmes and the academy overall is difficult to measure.

“Academies are unlike manufacturing where they are able to maintain and expect a consistent quality of product. For us, we view our results in a broader sense – this includes players making it to the first team, players becoming professionals and those that become industry experts. That is our return on investment.”

Looking at the hard numbers Valencia recorded a profit of more than £70 million on player sales – that number was down to £36 million last year. It is unclear whether this is down to the club holding on to their biggest talents or whether bids from other clubs have simply been lower.

Refocus on youth development

The club conducts regular reviews throughout the academy and applies two methods of evaluation – assumption reversal, which challenges all preconceived notions about what constitutes best practice and disruptive innovation, which explores innovative ways to create new opportunities for the academy.

“For example, while it is logical to expect talent from the wider community to move to the city to join the academy, our approach is to establish our programmes away from the city to open-up greater potential,” says Otero.

In the middle of last year, we recognised that despite the increase in top sports facilities, children have stopped playing football in the streets and parks.

While some clubs may decide to scale back their academy when normal service is resumed, the prospect of a stagnated transfer market may become the catalyst for change and force a refocus on youth development. Bai is sceptical:

"It would be a big positive if clubs do eventually turn to young players but it also depends on whether young players are committed to the club. If they only stay because there is no big contract coming from elsewhere, this is the risk of the player being distracted from football.”

At the same time, Bai sees some academies possibly “normalising” salaries in an uncertain economic environment.

“Clubs that are able to stabilise salaries could benefit in the long-term, attracting players more interested in the quality of the club and academy rather than contractual offers. This will allow the academy to sell their offering and not overfocus on the salary range.”

Meet changing habbits

Essentially, the Valencia academy is seen as an important element in the community, especially over the past few months when people have not only missed their football, but also fretted about the future of their favourite sport.

Otero believes the club has a responsibility to help football become part of everyday life and before additional worries brought on by the pandemic surfaced, Valencia had identified a need to meet changing habits.

“In the middle of last year, we recognised that despite the increase in top sports facilities, children have stopped playing football in the streets and parks. So, we redesigned our programmes to maximise playing time and contact time children have with football. We have also rolled these out across our regional, national and international academy partners.”

Bai adds that the concept of community is vital for Valencia and believes the academy can help people recover from the lockdown through the medium of football.

“Everyone is a stakeholder and to overcome crises, we have to move forward together. This is why we are dedicated towards community service and we participate in many projects.”

Valencia’s owner, Peter Lim, donated 50,000 surgical masks and thermometers for frontline workers at the height of the crisis and the club has set-up a food bank in the Mestalla Stadium. 

Technology has certainly helped  people navigate the crisis and going forward, the academy can expect to leverage the investments it has made hardware.

“Although the impact of Covid-19 is in inevitable, we explored and implemented the use of technology in the academy much earlier than most. This has included analysis platforms and virtual training sessions which have been encouraging and very positive. And it has allowed our players, technical staff and employees to stay in close contact. The academy has been a key pillar of the club for some time and we receive strong support from the club in developing the next generation of professionals, so the sudden increase in pressure and expectation has been met almost seamlessly,” says Otero.

Chelsea are fighting civil claims of "racially abusive behaviour", according to the Athletic, and have been taken to the High Court by former players who claim their experiences with the club in the 1980s and 1990s left them with long-term psychological damage.

The case relates to an independent inquiry which concluded Chelsea's former chief scout Gwyn Williams had subjected black youth-team players as young as 12 years old to racist abuse. 

The club issued a public apology at the time but did not reveal they were also defending claims who had been part of what Chelsea called "an environment where racially abusive behaviour became normalised".

Chelsea deny liability and argue the legal argument put forward should be directed at Williams himself – not them. The club's insurers have appointed Keoghs, which previously defended the Roman Catholic Church and Crewe Alexandre in their sexual-abuse scandals, to represent them. 

Williams, now in his early 70s, was said to have used a variety of derogatory remarks to Chelsea's young black players when he was the club's youth-team coach. 

The three-week trial, brought forward by four former footballers, is scheduled with the High Court in March 2022. One of them told the Athletic he had been diagnosed with post-traumatic stress disorder because of a "feral environment" where black players were "like a race of fucking dogs".
 

"People tend to look at us and tend to explain our relative success with our recruitment model. It is true that we have a good track record identifying undervalued players and selling them with a big profit, but that is just part of the story. I think our player development model is as important as recruitment. The young players we bring in are very rarely the finished developed package from day one, and we spend a lot of resources and money on developing those players once they enter the building.”

Rasmus Ankersen, co-director of football at Brentford FC, is fully aware that the Brentford story being told all over Britain - and probably all over Europe - is a story about using data in a different way to recruit players.

And, basically, he doesn't care how people explain the progress of the club - a club with one of the lowest revenues in the Championship - as long as the progress continues.

But when asked to explain the strategy behind the progress - many observers would say that they are punching above their weight - he feels that all the people working with player development at the club, in particularly at the B-team, deserves some credit for their hard work.

"The B-team is a vital component of our progress over the past few years. The way we organize ourselves in terms of player development is quite different to the traditional academy model.”

The summer of 2016 saw Brentford taking a significant step towards finally generating some return on the £2 million investment they made every year in the academy.

95 per cent will never survive

"Using investment language you could say that we went from working as a seed investor to a late-stage investor. From investing money in very unmatured talent, players as young as seven, to suddenly not recruiting anyone under the age of 17. If you are a seed investor, you know perfectly well that when you invest money in early stage start-ups, most likely 90 or 95 per cent of those companies will never survive.

"And, basically, you can apply that way of thinking to young footballers when they become part of academies all over the country. The vast majority of them won’t play in your first team and therefore won’t generate a return on investment. The one or two players that get through the eye of the needle will need to pay for investment you’ve made in everyone else," he explains.

According to Ankersen, Brentford were in a difficult position because, even though their academy did a decent job in developing players, quite often the most valuable players - or assets - left the club when they turned 17, leaving Brentford almost empty-handed.

"We were competing against the likes of Manchester City, who probably spend more on just youth scouting in London than we did on running our academy. Put on top of that our geographical location with big club neighbours like Chelsea, Spurs and Arsenal. So, we were in a difficult position and we felt we had to do something different to be able to compete. Looking at different opportunities, we ended up with the decision to close our academy and create a B-team structure instead.

"That’s where we moved to become a late-stage investor recruiting more mature players at age 17 or 18. The idea is that when you invest in a 17 year old player you pay more for him than when he was 7 years old, but it is justified by the fact that you also have a lot more certainty that he will have a successful career. Looking back at the last three years we are very pleased with that decision," reflects Ankersen.

No reason to hide that

Looking at the numbers, Brentford used to spend £2 million a year on running the academy - now they spend £1-1.5 million on their B-team instead. Since the start of the summer of 2016, 16 members of the B-team have made their debut on the first team.

"When you do elite youth development there are mainly two ways to measure success. Are you developing players to play in your first team? And can you sell the players you develop with a profit? At the end of the day talent development is a business, and like in any other business you want a return on your investment.”

“When we closed our academy we got a lot of criticism for thinking about it as a business because it involved young people. I acknowledge that an academy can serve other purposes, for example to play a role in the community, but an academy is also a business, and there is no reason to hide that. At Brentford FC we have a very successful community trust that makes a huge difference within the community. That’s not a business, but an elite academy is.”

He explains that to create a B-team was just part of the strategy implemented four years ago by Brentford FC, who are currently in fourth position in the Championship and pushing for promotion - presumably via the play-offs as WBA in second place are ten points ahead.

We wanted to break with that model

"In the traditional English club model there is a manager in charge of pretty much both short term and long term decisions at the club. We don’t think that’s particularly good for player development because a manager on average has his job for 14-16 months. If that’s your average life span, how far are you going to think ahead? Probably until next Saturday. Are you going to take a risk playing a young prospect rather than buying an experienced player even though that might be the right decision for the club in the medium to long term? Probably not.“

That is why Brentford have a first-team coach, not a manager, and the responsibility of the B-team is on the shoulders of the two sporting directors.

“At Brentford we wanted to break with that model and therefore we don’t have have a manager, but a head coach. His job is to win the games on Saturday, and he needs to be very good at that, but he is not in charge of recruitment and the academy model at the club. That responsibility sits with myself and Phil Giles, and our job is first and foremost to secure that Brentford is successful not only this season but also in five and 10 years.”

“The same goes for player development. You want to take a long term view on that too. When you buy a player, how do you want him to develop? What kind of player do you want him to be in 1-2 years? It is very difficult for the head coach to take such a long term view on players because the main part of his job is to win on Saturday, and that’s one of the main reasons why we decided a few years ago to appoint an individual development coach who basically has one job and that is to focus on developing our 6-7 biggest player assets.”

A first team without being a first team

“The individual development coach is one example of how we have tried to build a structure around player development that fits our business model. The core of our business is to make a profit every year on player trading so we need not only to be able to find players with potential, but also to increase their value by developing them while they are in the building.”

A key part of Brentford’s player development model is their investment into the B-team which travels all over Europe to play some of the top teams on the continent.

"Our B-team is the closest you get to a first team without being a first team. The number of staff and specialists that help these players develop matches what you see in many first team environments”, says Ankersen.

The recruitment at the B-team focuses primarily on two type of players: rejects from the UK and top talents from overseas.

“When we recruit players at the age of 17 or 18 years old it is difficult to attract the best English talent, so instead we are focusing on picking up some of those players who have been released by the big clubs or don’t see a pathway to the first team there. One example is Paris Maghoma who we recruited from Tottenham some months back. We believe he is a player with lots of potential, but making it into Tottenhams first team is very difficult.

"In that way I actually think our B-team is playing an important role for the whole eco-system of youth development because we pick up some of those talented players who are late bloomers or who has got stuck at a big club.”

Diverse games programme

“Our second focus in terms of recruitment is small and medium sized countries within Europe. Here, we have a very good story to tell to some of the most talented players. Brentford can be their pathway to the Championship or even Premier League. At the moment we have players like Jan Zamburek and Mads Roerslev who started playing for the B-team but have now broken into the first team. They are both youth internationals for Czech Republic and Denmark.”

Ankersen says that basically what they try to do is to differentiate their product.

“If you are a company in any other industry you need to think about how you can be different and how you make your product unique. The B-team model is our answer to that”

Brentford's B-team play matches against reserve teams from all over the country, and quite often they also travel to the Continent to play reserve teams from clubs like AC Milan and Bayern Munich. Ankersen believes that playing against continental teams will develop the players because they constantly need to adapt to new and varied opponents.

"If you are a player in a category 2 academy in England you pretty much only play against other category 2 players in the same age group. We don’t believe that’s the best way of developing players. The key for us is to create a diverse games programme where you play against many different styles of football and different age groups. They might play a classy midfielder from Bayern Munich one day, and a few days later they will play a team in the London Middlesex Cup - where they play semi-professionals on lousy pitches.”

Proximity of role models

Another thing which is very different at Brentford FC is the way they mingle the first team and the B-team. Most clubs "protect" the first-team players by creating an environment in which they are relatively isolated - but Brentford do it very differently.

"Some years back I went to Kenya to study why a small town there produce the worlds best marathon runners, and what I saw was that the young talents every day trained alongside some of the biggest stars in the world. I mean, if you run 10 strides behind the guy who won the world championship last year there is a good chance you think: “If he can do it, why can’t I?”.

That proximity of role models is very powerful in a talent environment, but unfortunately in football we are very busy separating our first team players from everyone else because we want to remove all distractions. They almost never see each other, and we tried to change that with the B-team. The B-team players are around the first team players all day long. They eat together, they are in the gym together, and it helps creates belief among the B-team players because after a while they realise that the first team players are just human like themselves. I guess you could say that proximity helps demystify what it takes to become really good," says Ankersen.

Parents of athletes hoping to turn professional have been left short-changed of close to $250,000, according to Australian news site 9News, after Barcelona closed two of their academies in Sydney and Brisbane due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Australia's Office of Fair Trading and the Australian Securities and Investments Commission have asked families to make a complaint so they can investigate the matter.

The report comes after Barcelona earlier this month closed five of their Canadian academies leading to families of the intended participants suing the club, claiming they had been cheated of more than $200,000. 

One mother, Bebe Monaghan, said she had saved up for a year and refinanced her home to make her son's dream come true. She said she lost $28,000.

"I sort of keep thinking this isn't real, this is a huge company, a huge football company with millions in profit, this can't really be happening," she told 9News.

Barcelona last season recorded a turnover of €852.2 million, the highest in world football, and a pre-tax profit of €3.6 million. In total, 70 families estimate they are owed around $350,000.

Barca Academy, in charge of operating the sites, blamed the coronavirus for the closure. According to the report, however, the firm was already struggling financially before the crisis and owed thousands of dollars in rent. It was only paid after several demand notices were brought forward.

Local club Brisbane Roar have said they would offer every player a free season of training with their academy.  

Barcelona have closed five of their Canadian academies after the club's local partner in charge of the operations, BCN Sports, filed for bankruptcy, according to Spanish publication Palco23.

The move has led to some families of the academies' attendants to file a lawsuit seeking refunds for the programmes they had otherwise paid to attend. 

The suit claims more than 75 families have been affected by the cancellations and that they have been "cheated" of more than $200,000. 

They also claim BCN Sports prior to filing for bankruptcy due to the coronavirus pandemic had changed its terms and conditions to ensure it would not have to issue refunds for its cancelled programmes. 

Barcelona had been in preparations to open a sixth academy in the country, but those plans have now also been cancelled.

The Spanish club have more than 50 academies worldwide, but this is the first time they have had to tone down their international expansion. 

Bristol City will continue to buy and develop young talents, according to the club's chairman, Jon Lansdown, who explained the club's transfer strategy in a recent interview with City's official podcast.

Lansdown was speaking as City are rapidly growing their business. The club have recently revealed revised plans for a £100 million sports and convention centre next to their stadium. Those plans will further support the club's growing commercial income, which reached £14.5 million last year, supporting a fourfold increase in turnover over the past five seasons to £30.3 million.

"We like to produce our own players if we can, and if not, then we look to try and buy young players and develop them. Obviously, it's a blend and balance, but if you're saying what does Bristol City do and what doesn't it do, as a Bristolian, you'd want to watch 11 Bristolians playing for Bristol City at the highest level.

"And how can you make the academy as good as it can be, and the facilities as good as it can be, to enable as much of that as possible? That's the utopia that is probably unachievable, but how do you work back from that and get something close to it?" he pondered. 

Lansdown also spoke out on his relationship with the club's head coach, Lee Johnson.

"Between me, Mark Ashton [the club's chief executive] and Lee, we're in regular contact. Of course, you need sounding boards off as many different people as possible. I'm not going to claim to be the football expert, but at the same time he's [Lee Johnson] very open-minded in terms of he's always looking to learn and get other people's opinions."